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-   -   Which primary is better for getting rid of a disliked incumbent? (https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=889359)

truthseeker3 01-31-2020 12:32 PM

Which primary is better for getting rid of a disliked incumbent?
 
Suppose there is an incumbent you really want out of office. Suppose further that you have a chance to vote in Party A's primary or Party B's primary (but not both), and the incumbent is in Party A. Which primary should you pick?

k9bfriender 01-31-2020 12:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by truthseeker3 (Post 22112406)
Suppose there is an incumbent you really want out of office. Suppose further that you have a chance to vote in Party A's primary or Party B's primary (but not both), and the incumbent is in Party A. Which primary should you pick?

Your hypothetical doesn't have enough information for a full answer. The simple answer is that voting in party A's primary would be beneficial, as if the incumbent doesn't get nominated, then you have succeeded in blocking them, however, while incumbents enjoy a very high reelection chance, their chances of being nominated are even higher.

Now, if party B has a knife edge of nominating a candidate that you think would do better in the general, then that changes things. You may have a situation where a substantial part of party B likes a particular candidate that has little chance of winning the general, while another, more centrist candidate has somewhat less support among the party, but stands a much higher chance of pulling people across the aisle and winning in the general.

As with most things, there is no easy answer, and it depends heavily on context and nuance of the situation.

truthseeker3 01-31-2020 08:23 PM

Well... I'm not sure I want to say this, but I might be thinking about a specific, *VERY* well-known incumbent - someone whose name alone can cause a thread to get ugly fast.

(Yes, I'm talking about Voldemort.)

Little Nemo 01-31-2020 08:30 PM

It's an issue of whether or not you support tactical voting.

If you don't, your choice is easy; vote for the candidate you most like in whichever primary they are running in.

If you are seeking to do some tactical voting, where you vote will depend on the particular circumstances of the election. Does the incumbent you dislike have a credible challenger in the Party A primary who might defeat them? Is there a candidate in Party B who you feel will have a better chance than the other Party B candidates of beating the incumbent in the general election?

asahi 01-31-2020 09:20 PM

Most of the incapable candidates will be disposed of by the end of February. Warren and Buttigieg will hang around, but won't be viable

truthseeker3 02-03-2020 12:42 PM

It looks like many states are cancelling their Republican primaries, so the question is probably moot (I haven't checked my state yet), but I appreciate the input - thanks!


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