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Saint Cad 02-29-2020 11:33 PM

Super Tuesday Primary Discussion
 
March 3rd
Alabama
American Samoa
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Maine
Massachusetts
Minnesota
North Carolina
Oklahoma
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia

I am not voting since my only choices were Donald Trump and 6 people I've never heard of. I'm trying to get people to vote for Klobuchar but after SC I don't think that's going very far.

RTFirefly 03-01-2020 01:23 AM

Let's order this list by number of delegates:

Code:

415        California primary
228        Texas primary
110        North Carolina primary
99        Virginia primary
91        Massachusetts primary
75        Minnesota primary
67        Colorado primary
64        Tennessee primary
52        Alabama primary
37        Oklahoma primary
31        Arkansas primary
29        Utah primary
24        Maine primary
16        Vermont primary
6        American Samoa caucuses


SlackerInc 03-01-2020 04:29 AM

I see a lot of Bernie stans on Twitter reassuring themselves that the black vote in Super Tuesday states looks stronger in polls for their man than the blowout in South Carolina. But Nate Silver says black voters tend to decide late and shift to the establishment candidate at the end. If this happens on Tuesday, I will be very happy—because I think it’s a terrible mistake to nominate Bernie, and I will feel like African Americans saved us from that fate. But that makes me wonder if people on the Bernie side are going to start feeling racial resentment, since it was also black voters that denied him the nomination in 2016 (I’m pretty sure he actually won more votes than Hillary among whites, although it was close).

Hopefully they are progressive enough not to go down that road, but it is human nature if you have your hopes and dreams loaded up on a certain outcome and an identifiable group of people repeatedly thwarts you.

iiandyiiii 03-01-2020 06:51 AM

This is the big one - go Bernie! We'll know the true state of the race after Tues.

asahi 03-01-2020 08:05 AM

Bernie will have a good night on Tuesday. I don't see any scenario in which he doesn't win more contests and delegates, and he will likely win Texas and California. But Biden probably holds the South and Southeast going forward.

QuickSilver 03-01-2020 10:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Saint Cad (Post 22165973)
March 3rd
Alabama
American Samoa
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Maine
Massachusetts
Minnesota
North Carolina
Oklahoma
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia

I am not voting since my only choices were Donald Trump and 6 people I've never heard of. I'm trying to get people to vote for Klobuchar but after SC I don't think that's going very far.

So Biden and Sanders are the new kids on the block to you? :dubious:

CarnalK 03-01-2020 10:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by QuickSilver (Post 22166373)
So Biden and Sanders are the new kids on the block to you? :dubious:

He probably is a registered Republican and Colorado (his location says near Denver) has closed primaries. So he probably means the other Republican candidates.

Bijou Drains 03-01-2020 10:41 AM

I was going to vote Yang then Steyer. I might end up with none of the above which is an option here.

Lance Turbo 03-01-2020 11:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CarnalK (Post 22166386)
He probably is a registered Republican and Colorado (his location says near Denver) has closed primaries. So he probably means the other Republican candidates.

Saint Cad is in Colorado and a Republican. Here are his choices:

Robert Ardini
Zoltan Istvan
Matthew John Matern
Donald Trump
Bill Weld
Joe Walsh

On top of that Joe Walsh dropped out on February 7th.

I guess Bill Weld is not a household name, but mail in ballots went out on February 10th which seems like more than enough time to Google those nine characters if not all six names.

Also... Zoltan Istvan? I think he was a minor bad guy on the old G.I. Joe cartoon. You don't need to know anything else about him to know that he deserves your vote.

BigAppleBucky 03-01-2020 11:19 AM

Super Tuesday:
(Posted by a Sanders fan on Facebook)

Alabama: No polling (52)
American Samoa (caucus): No polling (6)
Arkansas: One poll, Bloomberg +1 (2/6) (31)
California: Sanders +18 (possible no other candidate is viable) (415)
Colorado: Sanders +13 (67)
Maine: One Poll, Sanders +9 (2/13) (24)
Massachusetts: Sanders +4 (91)
Minnesota: Klobuchar +6 (75)
North Carolina: Biden +3 (110)
Oklahoma: Biden +1 (37)
Tennessee: No polling (64)
Texas: Sanders +9 (228)
Vermont: Sanders +38 (possible no other candidate is viable) (16)
Virginia: Sanders +6 (99)
Utah: Sanders +13 (29)

Wrap-up:

Sanders leading in 8 states
Biden leading in 2 states
Bloomberg leading in 1 state (Arkansas, by one percent)
Klobuchar leading in 1 state (MN, her home)
No Polling: Three states

Buttigeig: Not leading any states
Warren: Not leading any states
Gabbard: Not leading any states

Gabbard has won zero delegates so far
Warren: three straight events with zero delegates
Buttigeig: two straight events with zero delegates

BobLibDem 03-01-2020 11:24 AM

Nitpick: the Democrats Abroad have their primary on Super Tuesday as well.

I think it's a two man race now. Biden gets a bump out of SC, clears the 15% in CA and comes close if not wins TX. Kloubuchar, Warren, and Buttigieg drop out Wednesday. Maybe even Bloomberg if he becomes convinced that Biden will beat Bernie.

The question of the moment: does Sanders have a ceiling? I think yes, he has maybe 30% of the Democrats who support him but no more.

BigAppleBucky 03-01-2020 11:27 AM

If Sanders wins all the delegates in states he leads in the polls (impossible) and zero delegates in other states (also impossible), he would win 969 delegates of the 1990 needed for a nomination on the first ballot. He'd be a bit more than halfway there counting the delegates he has already won.

QuickSilver 03-01-2020 11:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CarnalK (Post 22166386)
He probably is a registered Republican and Colorado (his location says near Denver) has closed primaries. So he probably means the other Republican candidates.

Ah. Okay. That makes more sense.

Wesley Clark 03-01-2020 11:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SlackerInc (Post 22166134)
I see a lot of Bernie stans on Twitter reassuring themselves that the black vote in Super Tuesday states looks stronger in polls for their man than the blowout in South Carolina. But Nate Silver says black voters tend to decide late and shift to the establishment candidate at the end. If this happens on Tuesday, I will be very happy—because I think it’s a terrible mistake to nominate Bernie, and I will feel like African Americans saved us from that fate. But that makes me wonder if people on the Bernie side are going to start feeling racial resentment, since it was also black voters that denied him the nomination in 2016 (I’m pretty sure he actually won more votes than Hillary among whites, although it was close).

Hopefully they are progressive enough not to go down that road, but it is human nature if you have your hopes and dreams loaded up on a certain outcome and an identifiable group of people repeatedly thwarts you.

There is kind of a racial division among minorities right now though, on top of the age division.

Latinos seem to be going to Bernie while blacks are going towards Biden. Sanders is making inroads with blacks, but I think Biden is still the leader.

So there is the age gap and ideological gap, but also a racial gap between minorities.

Not sure if that will cause problems.

Wesley Clark 03-01-2020 11:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BobLibDem (Post 22166448)
Nitpick: the Democrats Abroad have their primary on Super Tuesday as well.

I think it's a two man race now. Biden gets a bump out of SC, clears the 15% in CA and comes close if not wins TX. Kloubuchar, Warren, and Buttigieg drop out Wednesday. Maybe even Bloomberg if he becomes convinced that Biden will beat Bernie.

The question of the moment: does Sanders have a ceiling? I think yes, he has maybe 30% of the Democrats who support him but no more.

Sanders has a 30% ceiling in a 6 person race, but as 2016 shows his ceiling is higher in a 2 person race.

Assuming several candidates drop out later this week, some will go to Bernie.

I could see Klob, Buttigieg and Warren dropping out later this week.

iiandyiiii 03-01-2020 11:52 AM

Someone posted all the 2-candidate preferences by polling from last week or so - Bernie beat every other Democrat, with wide margins against all but 2, IIRC - Warren and Biden (Warren was closest but still lost to Bernie).

UltraVires 03-01-2020 12:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BobLibDem (Post 22166448)
The question of the moment: does Sanders have a ceiling? I think yes, he has maybe 30% of the Democrats who support him but no more.

I would think that Bernie has 100% of the Democrats who support him. Certainly no more. :)

It looks like that 15% threshold is going to decide this race. Biden and Bernie probably make it in almost every state (certainly Bernie) but if another candidate cannot consistently win at least 15%, there is no brokered convention as Biden and Bernie will slug it out and the winner will by definition have a majority of delegates.

I think the outcome of this race depends on Bloomberg. Not that he will win, but whether he causes a brokered convention by denying Sanders a majority.

UltraVires 03-01-2020 12:14 PM

Also, and I hate to be that guy, but this polling seems to be extremely volatile such that they should perhaps be taken with a grain of salt. Look at SC...Biden was up big for a long time, and as little as a week ago, Bernie was up by 7 points and Biden ends up winning by 30.

I think Bernie certainly takes a hit after SC. Maybe he still wins, but only by 5 instead of 20.

SlackerInc 03-01-2020 01:58 PM

What UltraVires said.

Lance Turbo 03-01-2020 02:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by UltraVires (Post 22166506)
Look at SC...Biden was up big for a long time, and as little as a week ago, Bernie was up by 7 points and Biden ends up winning by 30.

Where are you getting your information? I don't think this happened.

thorny locust 03-01-2020 02:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Saint Cad (Post 22165973)
I am not voting since my only choices were Donald Trump and 6 people I've never heard of.

Google?

You could at least register a protest vote for Not Trump, by voting for one of the others. I don't suppose that'll help much; but it's something.

(this comment presuming that you are indeed registered Republican.)

DinoR 03-01-2020 02:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lance Turbo (Post 22166434)
Saint Cad is in Colorado and a Republican.

On top of all that the primary is for president only. There are no down ballot races to vote on Tuesday. Colorado is still using their caucus system on March 7th for other offices.

Lance Turbo 03-01-2020 02:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DinoR (Post 22166626)
On top of all that the primary is for president only. There are no down ballot races to vote on Tuesday. Colorado is still using their caucus system on March 7th for other offices.

It's even more confusing that that. The March 7 caucuses are one, but not the only, way to qualify to be on the Colorado primary ballot for offices other than president. The primary takes place on June 30 (or more accurately, primary polls close on June 30 since Colorado is 100% mail in).

The June 30 primary decides who will appear on the ballot in November.

Velocity 03-01-2020 02:34 PM

That 15% threshold is a huge boost to Bernie at the moment. Ensuring that numerous votes for Buttigieg, Klob, Warren etc. go for naught.

Lance Turbo 03-01-2020 02:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thorny locust (Post 22166623)
Google?

Right? He's had his ballot for over two weeks now.

He's started several threads about the Democratic primary in that time period, but couldn't be bothered to Google five names on a ballot that is only voting for one office.

pjacks 03-01-2020 02:54 PM

This was my first time voting on Super Tuesday or in a presidential primary that actually matters, as I moved from Illinois to Colorado last month.
It looks like Sanders is a lock to win CO, with all the rest of the candidates battling it out just to get to the 15% threshold for delegates. I voted for Pete. He is ultimately the best one left standing, but I would've preferred Yang, Inslee or Hickenlooper.
Although I predict Warren will come in 2nd here, and Biden in 3rd.

UltraVires 03-01-2020 03:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lance Turbo (Post 22166611)
Where are you getting your information? I don't think this happened.

You're right. One week ago Biden was up 4 points, 27-23. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/202...election_usmap

He wins by 30 one week later. My point stands.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lance Turbo (Post 22166641)
Right? He's had his ballot for over two weeks now.

He's started several threads about the Democratic primary in that time period, but couldn't be bothered to Google five names on a ballot that is only voting for one office.

There is a cost/benefit to things and time is valuable. How much time should the poster devote to researching also ran joke candidates against Trump in the Republican primary? Do you think Trump might lose renomination if people just looked at these quality candidates?

UltraVires 03-01-2020 03:31 PM

Nate Silver projecting a close Super Tuesday: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...-tuesday-race/

Some takeaways: Texas is close. It doesn't really matter who wins because of the proportionality the winner will only get a couple more delegates anyways. Warren and Bloomberg hovering around 15% in many, many states.

That is the perverse part of this 15% rule. Let's say we have Bernie 30%, Biden 24%, and Bloomberg 15%. If you are a moderate voter who supports Biden, it is to your tactical advantage to vote for Bloomberg in this scenario.

Should the vote change to Bernie 30%, Biden 25%, and Bloomberg 14%, then Bloomberg gets nothing and his delegates are reallocated proportionally to Bernie and Biden. If he gets 15%, then he gets his full proportion, which is in effect all anti-Bernie votes. Say 15% gets you 60 delegates.

If Bloomy gets 14% then those 60 delegates are probably given 32-28 for Bernie. If Bloomy gets 15%, then he gets all 60, making 60 anti-Bernie votes. That is a net -64 delegate loss for Bernie based on a different third place candidate who you aren't worried about getting an additional 1% (or indeed a fraction of 1%).

Likewise if Warren breaches 15% then that is actually better for Bernie than him convincing that extra 1% of Warren voters to vote for him!! The 15% rule makes it better in this situation to lose votes to a like-minded candidate.

That Don Guy 03-01-2020 03:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BobLibDem (Post 22166448)
Nitpick: the Democrats Abroad have their primary on Super Tuesday as well.

Reply nitpick: It starts on Super Tuesday, and ends a week later, so results will not be known before 3/11.

Lance Turbo 03-01-2020 03:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by UltraVires (Post 22166692)
You're right. One week ago Biden was up 4 points, 27-23. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/202...election_usmap

He wins by 30 one week later. My point stands.

You might be right about this, but your link doesn't support your claim. Even if it did support your claim, reality was 11 points different than original claim so I'm not sure your point does stand or even what your point is.

Why don't you get your facts straight, make a clear claim, and then link to the data that supports it?

Quote:

Originally Posted by UltraVires (Post 22166692)
There is a cost/benefit to things and time is valuable. How much time should the poster devote to researching also ran joke candidates against Trump in the Republican primary? Do you think Trump might lose renomination if people just looked at these quality candidates?

I think someone who posts in this forum as much as Saint Cad has over this election cycle and the 2016 election cycle should know who Bill Weld is. Barring that, I think such a person should probably keep their ignorance to themselves rather than bragging about it when starting thread after thread about a primary that they are refusing to participate in.

DSeid 03-01-2020 03:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wesley Clark (Post 22166477)
There is kind of a racial division among minorities right now though, on top of the age division.

Latinos seem to be going to Bernie while blacks are going towards Biden. Sanders is making inroads with blacks, but I think Biden is still the leader.

So there is the age gap and ideological gap, but also a racial gap between minorities.

Not sure if that will cause problems.

I wonder how much of the Latinx/Black gap is an artifact of the age gap? (Clearly not all of it.) The Latinx eligible voter population is skewed much younger than the Black eligible voting population.

The votes Tuesday really are the strongest test yet of a major element of Sanders' electability theory. If he can get the traditionally non-voting blocs young and Latinx voters to come out to the polls in large numbers Tuesday he will dominate California and Texas, moving significantly ahead, and providing actual evidence that he can do that. If not? He may win those states but much more narrowly, and his electability theory deflates three notches.

Jimmy Chitwood 03-01-2020 03:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by UltraVires (Post 22166715)
Likewise if Warren breaches 15% then that is actually better for Bernie than him convincing that extra 1% of Warren voters to vote for him!! The 15% rule makes it better in this situation to lose votes to a like-minded candidate.

Except that the only reason that Warren is still in the race is to prevent Sanders from winning and ensure a brokered convention, which everyone but Sanders now views as to their benefit. "Like-minded candidate" is just a narrative gloss on what's actually going on. In reality, everyone who isn't Sanders is aiming to keep Sanders from having a majority.

UltraVires 03-01-2020 04:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lance Turbo (Post 22166727)
You might be right about this, but your link doesn't support your claim. Even if it did support your claim, reality was 11 points different than original claim so I'm not sure your point does stand or even what your point is.

Why don't you get your facts straight, make a clear claim, and then link to the data that supports it?



I think someone who posts in this forum as much as Saint Cad has over this election cycle and the 2016 election cycle should know who Bill Weld is. Barring that, I think such a person should probably keep their ignorance to themselves rather than bragging about it when starting thread after thread about a primary that they are refusing to participate in.

Sorry, wrong link: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...outh-carolina/

Bottom part of the page, poll release 2/24. An A+ rated poll of Likely Voters shows Biden +4. Biden was +30. That's a 26 point swing. One below it shows Biden +1, a 29 point swing.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jimmy Chitwood (Post 22166738)
Except that the only reason that Warren is still in the race is to prevent Sanders from winning and ensure a brokered convention, which everyone but Sanders now views as to their benefit. "Like-minded candidate" is just a narrative gloss on what's actually going on. In reality, everyone who isn't Sanders is aiming to keep Sanders from having a majority.

Is there something wrong with this math? Assume a state has 100 delegates. Assume Warren's delegates will vote for Bernie when she drops out.

If the primary results are Biden 45%, Bernie 45% and Warren 10%, then Bernie and Biden each get 45 delegates. As Warren did not meet the threshold, her votes are reallocated such that the top two get 5 each and the final delegate haul is Bernie 50, Biden 50.

Now imagine Bernie sees this and asks certain of his supporters to vote for Warren. The new results are Biden 45%, Bernie 40%, Warren 15%. This means that after Warren gives up the ghost Bernie now has 55 delegates to Biden's 45.

By losing 5% of the vote to a different candidate and coming in second instead of first (assume he originally won by a few hundred votes), and presumably being less popular with the party, Bernie goes from a tie in delegates to plus 10. How does that make sense?

BobLibDem 03-01-2020 04:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by UltraVires (Post 22166762)
Now imagine Bernie sees this and asks certain of his supporters to vote for Warren. The new results are Biden 45%, Bernie 40%, Warren 15%. This means that after Warren gives up the ghost Bernie now has 55 delegates to Biden's 45.

You had me up to here. It seems to assume that Warren would support Bernie after dropping out. Maybe she would. But her delegates aren't bound to vote as she sees fit, they're bound to her. Once she releases her delegates they could vote for whoever.

Ukulele Ike 03-01-2020 04:51 PM

“Your Bathysphere is filled with tar,”
Said Buttigieg
To Klobuchar.

“A condor perched upon the ledge,”
Said Klobuchar
To Buttigieg.

Lance Turbo 03-01-2020 05:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ukulele Ike (Post 22166834)
“Your Bathysphere is filled with tar,”
Said Buttigieg
To Klobuchar.

“A condor perched upon the ledge,”
Said Klobuchar
To Buttigieg.

I was thinking this exact thing earlier today.

More or less.

Ukulele Ike 03-01-2020 05:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lance Turbo (Post 22166848)
I was thinking this exact thing earlier today.

More or less.

Sorry, folks!

Just feeling a bit Edward leery of the whole situation.

Jimmy Chitwood 03-01-2020 05:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by UltraVires (Post 22166762)
Is there something wrong with this math? Assume a state has 100 delegates. Assume Warren's delegates will vote for Bernie when she drops out.

My point is that not only should we not assume that, Warren has said the opposite of this. Like I said, the whole point of everyone's campaign who is not Sanders at this point is to prevent Sanders from getting a majority, get to a brokered convention, not nominate Sanders, and [...] profit. For anyone who is not a legitimate threat to beat Sanders directly (i.e. anyone but Biden), your only hope is to get to the convention and then have weird shit happen.

It would make no sense for Warren to be in the race right now attacking Sanders and having aides telling reporters their focus is on blunting Sanders' momentum, and then hand off support to him by dropping out. If Warren wanted to give delegates to Sanders, there would be a very simple and easy way to do that. She's doing the other thing. The only thing suggesting Warren/Sanders cooperation at this point is just that bare assumption based on the thinking that Warren is the furthest left other candidate. Every other indication is that she's just the furthest left of the Stop Sanders coalition.

JRDelirious 03-01-2020 05:57 PM

BTW we just lost Buttigieg. https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/01/polit...ign/index.html

UltraVires 03-01-2020 06:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JRDelirious (Post 22166955)

Quote:

Buttigieg was scheduled to fly from Selma, Alabama, to Dallas, Texas, but during the flight he informed reporters that he would be flying back to his hometown of South Bend to make an announcement on the future of his campaign.
During the flight? I would have been pissed if I had reservations in Dallas or was planning to meet friends. Dude could have at least told them prior to the flight.

UltraVires 03-01-2020 06:31 PM

But more on topic, I think that gives Biden a few points in each state.

SlackerInc 03-01-2020 07:27 PM

Yeah, Amy Klobuchar needs to get the same clue. I was strongly supporting her after NH, but given what's happened since she needs to get out ASAP and stop being a spoiler.


Quote:

Originally Posted by pjacks (Post 22166666)
This was my first time voting on Super Tuesday or in a presidential primary that actually matters, as I moved from Illinois to Colorado last month.
It looks like Sanders is a lock to win CO, with all the rest of the candidates battling it out just to get to the 15% threshold for delegates. I voted for Pete.


Whoops. This is why I don't vote early in primaries. Too much chance you might waste your vote on someone who drops out in the interim.


Quote:

Originally Posted by UltraVires (Post 22166762)
Assume Warren's delegates will vote for Bernie when she drops out.


I wouldn't assume this. I have a hunch, based on the tack she has been taking the past few days, that she wants to have enough leverage to get Biden to team up with her as a ticket at a brokered convention.


Quote:

Originally Posted by UltraVires (Post 22167004)
During the flight? I would have been pissed if I had reservations in Dallas or was planning to meet friends. Dude could have at least told them prior to the flight.


I can see why they'd potentially be annoyed, but they would have to literally quit their jobs at that moment to still go to Dallas. Their employers will definitely expect them to go cover his dropout speech and try to question him about whether he'll endorse Biden.

SlackerInc 03-01-2020 07:28 PM

double post

UltraVires 03-01-2020 07:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SlackerInc (Post 22167087)
I wouldn't assume this. I have a hunch, based on the tack she has been taking the past few days, that she wants to have enough leverage to get Biden to team up with her as a ticket at a brokered convention.

This brings up an interesting question which I'm sure has been answered somewhere. If I am elected to the convention as a delegate pledged to Warren, but she drops out or "suspends" her campaign, how does my pledge now work? Am I a free agent or do I have to vote as Warren decrees? For how many ballots?

If it is the first, then what Warren says means little because her supporters would likely align with Bernie and probably wouldn't care if she had struck some kind of cozy deal for a cabinet spot with Biden.

That Don Guy 03-01-2020 08:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by UltraVires (Post 22167110)
This brings up an interesting question which I'm sure has been answered somewhere. If I am elected to the convention as a delegate pledged to Warren, but she drops out or "suspends" her campaign, how does my pledge now work? Am I a free agent or do I have to vote as Warren decrees? For how many ballots?

Well, technically you don't "have to" vote for anybody; the only rule is the "in all good conscience" rule. If you are convinced that the people who voted for Warren that got you in as a delegate want someone else, you have a case to vote for someone else.

The short version is, unless you have to vote for Warren, you can vote for anybody; she can't make you vote for someone else. She can "suggest" someone, but that's about it.

"I am under the impression that," if she only "suspends" her campaign and does not officially withdraw her nomination, you have to vote for her for as long as she's running. (Someone else claims that all delegates are released after the first ballot, but I have seen no such rule anywhere.) Then again, if she decides not to have her name placed into nomination in the first place, then you can now vote for anybody.

SlackerInc 03-01-2020 08:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by UltraVires (Post 22167110)
This brings up an interesting question which I'm sure has been answered somewhere. If I am elected to the convention as a delegate pledged to Warren, but she drops out or "suspends" her campaign, how does my pledge now work? Am I a free agent or do I have to vote as Warren decrees? For how many ballots?

If it is the first, then what Warren says means little because her supporters would likely align with Bernie and probably wouldn't care if she had struck some kind of cozy deal for a cabinet spot with Biden.


I have been dying to know the answer to this question. I posed it here in GQ, and my memory of the thread was that no one really knew for sure. I posed it on the Triple Nine Society group, and they didn't really know either. Many articles assume that candidates can "horse trade" with "their" delegates, but it's totally unclear if that's actually how it works.

However, I'm not sure you're right about how individual Warren delegates would feel. I think a lot of them are mad at Bernie about the dustup they had over whether a woman could win, the confrontation at the debate, etc.

dalej42 03-01-2020 08:59 PM

Bernie Bro protestors shut down an Amy event tonight.

Sorry that Amy has to get a taste of how nasty the Bros are.

https://twitter.com/amandawgolden/st...121558016?s=21

SlackerInc 03-01-2020 09:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dalej42 (Post 22167195)
Bernie Bro protestors shut down an Amy event tonight.

Sorry that Amy has to get a taste of how nasty the Bros are.

https://twitter.com/amandawgolden/st...121558016?s=21


To be fair, I think those are BLM protesters. They are notorious assholes, but they have done the same thing to Bernie (one of the few times I have been sympathetic to him).

dalej42 03-01-2020 09:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SlackerInc (Post 22167205)
To be fair, I think those are BLM protesters. They are notorious assholes, but they have done the same thing to Bernie (one of the few times I have been sympathetic to him).

I suspect they’re the same ‘BLM’ protestors who harassed Pete.

iiandyiiii 03-02-2020 07:42 AM

538 has a fantastic Super Tues prediction "game" -- pick who wins the various states and see how it affects the chances for a delegate majority.

Picking only the states that 538 currently estimates Bernie is most likely to win (CA, MA, CO, UT, ME, VT, and American Samoa) as Bernie victories raises his majority chance to ~43%, reduces Biden's to 4%, and "no one" with a majority to ~52%. Doing the same for Biden very roughly flips this, reducing Bernie to single digits and putting Biden around 40%. This is a very close race, but no one aside from Bernie or Biden has a significant chance to get anything close to a majority of delegates.

I also did a scenario with Bernie winning the states he's strongly favored in (CA, MA, CO, UT, ME, and VT) and Biden winning the states he's strongly favored in (NC and AL), leaving the rest as toss ups, and this resulted in a Bernie 24% chance for majority, Biden 10% chance, and "no majority" at 65%.


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