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-   -   Will Trump leave office peacefully and normally if he loses the election? (https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=891275)

Fiveyearlurker 03-08-2020 12:04 PM

Will Trump leave office peacefully and normally if he loses the election?
 
This is one of those rare opportunities in politics to make predictions about something that actually might have an answer. There's at least a decent chance that Trump loses the election. So, let's imagine a scenario where it's the day after election day. Biden has won handily with a solid popular vote as well as electoral victory. There is no serious reason to contest anything. There are no legitimate irregularities.

Does Trump do what normal presidents have done and, you know, leave office and hand everything over?

I just see nothing in his personality, or comments, that lead me to believe that there would be a peaceful transition. What do you think he will do? What would the GOP do if Trump refused to transition power? What would happen if he did refuse?

QuickSilver 03-08-2020 12:37 PM

He will have to be carried out, kicking, screaming and grabbing onto the hand rails, like a whiny little bitch. Then, won't shut up about it for the rest of his worthless life. Which, I hope, will be spent in courts fighting a litany of charges of corruption and other malfeasance.

UltraVires 03-08-2020 02:25 PM

I have heard this allegation made during the reelection campaigns of Clinton, Bush, and Obama. It's frankly ridiculous.

A president who is not reelected does not have the choice to refuse to leave office. He just becomes a trespasser in the White House. His orders to anyone would be ignored as if I gave orders to government officials. If he orders the Army to attack Canada, that order is as meaningless as if I gave it.

And as any other trespasser, he would be given the opportunity to walk off of the premises either voluntarily or in handcuffs. As a former president, he would be given more of an opportunity for the former before the latter was used. But he is leaving one way or the other.

The Tooth 03-08-2020 02:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by UltraVires (Post 22178096)
I have heard this allegation made during the reelection campaigns of Clinton, Bush, and Obama. It's frankly ridiculous.

A president who is not reelected does not have the choice to refuse to leave office. He just becomes a trespasser in the White House. His orders to anyone would be ignored as if I gave orders to government officials. If he orders the Army to attack Canada, that order is as meaningless as if I gave it.

And as any other trespasser, he would be given the opportunity to walk off of the premises either voluntarily or in handcuffs. As a former president, he would be given more of an opportunity for the former before the latter was used. But he is leaving one way or the other.

The thing is, it's Trump himself floating the idea of overstaying his welcome. He's done so more than once. He also thinks himself a king in all but name and tried to buy Greenland.

Having said that, I don't see how Trump's threats can be anything but hollow. He can hide under the Resolute desk if he wants to, but the real president can have him removed bodily with no trouble.

I wouldn't be concerned with his staying after his term end, but his blustering on about doing so should make one wonder about how he views his office and his job, and what other dumb awful things he'll do.

bengangmo 03-08-2020 02:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by UltraVires (Post 22178096)
I have heard this allegation made during the reelection campaigns of Clinton, Bush, and Obama. It's frankly ridiculous.

A president who is not reelected does not have the choice to refuse to leave office. He just becomes a trespasser in the White House. His orders to anyone would be ignored as if I gave orders to government officials. If he orders the Army to attack Canada, that order is as meaningless as if I gave it.

And as any other trespasser, he would be given the opportunity to walk off of the premises either voluntarily or in handcuffs. As a former president, he would be given more of an opportunity for the former before the latter was used. But he is leaving one way or the other.

Of course he's physically leaving - there's no doubt about that.

The question is more - how much / little of a handover is he going to do? What sort of files are going to be ready? How much can he fuck with the incoming president with a bit of sabotage?

In my worklife I've seen any number of people that are new to a position that have had good and bad handovers. I've seen people that have done things like delete all relevant files, deliberately sabotage deals etc etc - how much of this can Trump do?

RioRico 03-08-2020 02:46 PM

Election calendar:
  • Fall 2018 to Spring 2019 – Candidates announce their intentions to run, and (if necessary) file their Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission
  • June 2019 to April 2020 – Primary and caucus debates
  • February 3 to June 16, 2020 – Primaries and caucuses
  • Late May to August 2020 – Nominating conventions (including those of the minor third parties)
  • September and October 2020 – Presidential election debates
  • Tuesday November 3, 2020 – Election Day
  • Monday December 14, 2020 – Electors cast their electoral votes
  • Wednesday January 6, 2021 – Congress counts and certifies the electoral votes
  • Wednesday January 20, 2021 – Inauguration Day
Eleven weeks between Election Day and Inauguration Day. Over two and a half months delay. What can a sitting lame-duck luzer POTUS do in that time? What disasters could befall the nation, requiring declarations of emergency and martial law?

Little Nemo 03-08-2020 02:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by UltraVires (Post 22178096)
A president who is not reelected does not have the choice to refuse to leave office. He just becomes a trespasser in the White House. His orders to anyone would be ignored as if I gave orders to government officials. If he orders the Army to attack Canada, that order is as meaningless as if I gave it.

I agree that Trump will have no legal ground to stay. But I think that unlike past Presidents, Trump will refuse to accept the fact and will make the attempt to stay.

So he'll leave office because he'll have no choice. But it won't be peacefully or normally.

My specific prediction is that he'll fall back on old habits. He'll lie and claim there was voting fraud without any evidence to back it up. And then he'll file lawsuits to try to have the election results overturned.

Little Nemo 03-08-2020 02:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RioRico (Post 22178127)
What can a sitting lame-duck luzer POTUS do in that time?

A Presidential self-pardon on January 19.

Kolak of Twilo 03-08-2020 02:56 PM

Will Trump leave office peacefully and normally if he loses the election?
 
If Trump loses I fully expect him to claim massive voter fraud and call the election illegitimate. This will continue in one form or another until Inauguration Day. I wouldn’t be surprised for him to order Barr or Senate Republicans to launch an investigation. Breibart, Alex Jones, Hannity and Limbaugh will blame a “Deep State” conspiracy.

In the end he will either leave the WH on his own or be escorted out by US Marshall’s or the Secret Service. Whoever the Dem winner ends up being will be sworn in and occupy the WH. Republicans, encouraged by Trump, will immediately begin calling for impeachment investigations into the new President but will most likely not have the power to get anything started.

I find it unlikely he will attend the inauguration of his successor.

ThelmaLou 03-08-2020 03:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by UltraVires (Post 22178096)
I have heard this allegation made during the reelection campaigns of Clinton, Bush, and Obama. It's frankly ridiculous.
....

Trump is NOTHING like Clinton, Bush, or Obama or any other former president of modern times. I observe from your other posts that you're one of those people who sees the reality you want to see instead of the one that is. Hope that works out for ya. (It won't.)

Aspenglow 03-08-2020 03:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RioRico (Post 22178127)
<snip>
Eleven weeks between Election Day and Inauguration Day. Over two and a half months delay. What can a sitting lame-duck luzer POTUS do in that time? What disasters could befall the nation, requiring declarations of emergency and martial law?

This is exactly what keeps me awake at night. He'll leave, or be made to leave. But we've already seen how much damage he can do in a short amount of time and he doesn't give a shit about the disastrous mess he leaves in his wake. With his cohorts in the Senate, they can do A. Lot. Of. Damage.

Launch a little nuke at North Korea?

Invade Iran?

Release all our most sensitive intelligence to buddy Vlad? Or MBS?

The potential for sabotage is incalculable.

eenerms 03-08-2020 03:27 PM

Yes

UltraVires 03-08-2020 04:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ThelmaLou (Post 22178153)
Trump is NOTHING like Clinton, Bush, or Obama or any other former president of modern times. I observe from your other posts that you're one of those people who sees the reality you want to see instead of the one that is. Hope that works out for ya. (It won't.)

Pot meet kettle. You have absolutely no evidence Trump will do this.

I also heard about how Clinton was different than all former presidents, then Bush was, then Obama was, now Trump definitely is...until he's not and the next one is the true anti-Christ.

To others: Trump will claim the election was illegitimate? You mean like Gore? Like Kerry?

Plus, didn't we hear in the lead up to the last election how Trump would refuse to accept these results, only when he won, it was Hillary and posters here refusing to accept the results? The big bad electoral college and mean old James Comey and the misogynistic country?

I guess I was trying to answer a question and did not realize that this was the 5000th how evil Trump is thread. Please continue. I look forward to the next installment of "What if Trump tortures dogs on the White House lawn, can anything be done about it?!?!?" thread.

Chefguy 03-08-2020 04:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kolak of Twilo (Post 22178135)
If Trump loses I fully expect him to claim massive voter fraud and call the election illegitimate. This will continue in one form or another until Inauguration Day. I wouldn’t be surprised for him to order Barr or Senate Republicans to launch an investigation. Breibart, Alex Jones, Hannity and Limbaugh will blame a “Deep State” conspiracy.

In the end he will either leave the WH on his own or be escorted out by US Marshall’s or the Secret Service. Whoever the Dem winner ends up being will be sworn in and occupy the WH. Republicans, encouraged by Trump, will immediately begin calling for impeachment investigations into the new President but will most likely not have the power to get anything started.

I find it unlikely he will attend the inauguration of his successor.

I agree with most of this, except I'd change ". . .until Inauguration Day." to ". . .until he's fucking dead." He'll be a regular on Fox until even they can't stand him any longer (a la Palin), and then they'll cut the whiny bitch loose.

Little Nemo 03-08-2020 04:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aspenglow (Post 22178156)
Launch a little nuke at North Korea?

This is Trump we're talking about. He might launch a nuke at South Korea.

Aspenglow 03-08-2020 04:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Little Nemo (Post 22178241)
This is Trump we're talking about. He might launch a nuke at South Korea.

I stand corrected. :(

Little Nemo 03-08-2020 04:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by UltraVires (Post 22178221)
Trump will claim the election was illegitimate? You mean like Gore? Like Kerry?

No, more like Trump.

Trump did, after all, claim the 2016 election was illegitimate. And he won that election.

He then went on to claim that the count at his inauguration was illegitimate.

Trump has spent his whole life claiming that he won when he lost. And when he wins, he claims he won by more than he actually did.

Do you really think he'll accept the results of an election is he loses? That a man who refuses to admit he lost a round of golf will admit he lost a presidential election?

bobot 03-08-2020 04:43 PM

Will Trump leave office peacefully and normally if he loses the election?




Yes. If he refuses, he will be escorted out. As fucked as Trump has made the standards and protocols in this country, I refuse to accept that we're actually in danger of a so-called president that can succeed in refusing to leave. If dragging by the whatever-that-is-on-the-top-of-his-head is required for some reason, let me know, I'll make time.

Chad Sudan 03-08-2020 04:47 PM

"Given my experience working for Mr. Trump, I fear that if he loses the election in 2020, that there will never be a peaceful transition of power."

- Michael Cohen, Trump's former lawyer, testifying to Congress, Feb. 27, 2019

QuickSilver 03-08-2020 04:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bobot (Post 22178292)
[B]If dragging by the whatever-that-is-on-the-top-of-his-head is required for some reason, let me know, I'll make time.

This is one move that will not lack for friends eager to help out.

running coach 03-08-2020 05:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bobot (Post 22178292)
Will Trump leave office peacefully and normally if he loses the election?




Yes. If he refuses, he will be escorted out. As fucked as Trump has made the standards and protocols in this country, I refuse to accept that we're actually in danger of a so-called president that can succeed in refusing to leave. If dragging by the whatever-that-is-on-the-top-of-his-head is required for some reason, let me know, I'll make time.

I doubt the tentacles are strong enough.

Czarcasm 03-08-2020 05:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by UltraVires (Post 22178221)
I look forward to the next installment of "What if Trump tortures dogs on the White House lawn, can anything be done about it?!?!?" thread.

If Trump tortured dogs on the White House lawn, would you give a shit?

Fiveyearlurker 03-08-2020 07:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by UltraVires (Post 22178221)
Pot meet kettle. You have absolutely no evidence Trump will do this.

I mean, if by "absolutely no evidence", you mean "he has already directly said he wouldn't accept the results of an election that he loses", then yes, this is accurate.

Bijou Drains 03-08-2020 07:06 PM

He will throw tantrums but he will leave. Just like the 2 year old he is mentally.

E-DUB 03-08-2020 07:12 PM

I've been around for a while, so I first heard this about Nixon. As for trump, he may try to stay but the President elect can just have the phone lines cut and put a sign on the White House reading "DC Jail".

UltraVires 03-08-2020 07:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fiveyearlurker (Post 22178428)
I mean, if by "absolutely no evidence", you mean "he has already directly said he wouldn't accept the results of an election that he loses", then yes, this is accurate.

Did you read about 3 inches down on your link?

Quote:

"I would accept a clear election result but I would also reserve my right to contest or file a legal challenge in the case of a questionable result," Trump told his crowd.

KarlGauss 03-08-2020 07:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by UltraVires (Post 22178447)
Did you read about 3 inches down on your link?

Quote:

"I would accept a clear election result but I would also reserve my right to contest or file a legal challenge in the case of a questionable result," Trump told his crowd.
Of course, he will call any result "questionable" that doesn't have him as the winner .

RioRico 03-08-2020 07:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bobot (Post 22178292)
Will Trump leave office peacefully and normally if he loses the election?




Yes. If he refuses, he will be escorted out.

When?

Jackknifed Juggernaut 03-08-2020 07:46 PM

The chances of Trump accepting defeat, and leaving the White House without some kind of fight, are between slim and none....

SPOILER:
....and slim just left town.

Kyomara 03-08-2020 07:58 PM

Points of order:

Quote:

Originally Posted by UltraVires (Post 22178221)
I also heard about how Clinton was different than all former presidents, then Bush was, then Obama was, now Trump definitely is...until he's not and the next one is the true anti-Christ.

Trump is the only one to have "joked" about it himself. The ones on your list just got accused preemptively by crazed detractors.

Quote:

Originally Posted by UltraVires (Post 22178221)
To others: Trump will claim the election was illegitimate? You mean like Gore? Like Kerry?

There was some legitimate doubt around the results in Florida. And I don't remember Kerry claiming the election was illegitimate.

Quote:

Originally Posted by UltraVires (Post 22178221)
Plus, didn't we hear in the lead up to the last election how Trump would refuse to accept these results, only when he won, it was Hillary and posters here refusing to accept the results? The big bad electoral college and mean old James Comey and the misogynistic country?

What people said was that Hillary won three million more popular votes than Trump, which is true. I didn't see anyone "refuse to accept the results." I saw people complaining that the electoral college system was broken, and lamenting that they had no choice but to accept the results.

Quote:

Originally Posted by UltraVires (Post 22178221)
I guess I was trying to answer a question and did not realize that this was the 5000th how evil Trump is thread. Please continue. I look forward to the next installment of "What if Trump tortures dogs on the White House lawn, can anything be done about it?!?!?" thread.

Trump is fucking evil.

All of that said, I don't think Trump will resist leaving the White House. I do think that he will bitch and moan about it for the rest of his stupid life, which hopefully is very short.

guizot 03-08-2020 08:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bijou Drains (Post 22178429)
He will throw tantrums but he will leave. Just like the 2 year old he is mentally.

Right, but his tantrum will be a dog-and-pony show for his followers, like everything he does: nothing but optics of self-gratification.

His first steps will be to start accusing everyone else of all the soon-to-be exposed crimes and/or misdeeds he has done but which have been kept under wraps by his administration. He'll be on Fox News or some such all day long, and they'll continue to provide him with asinine conspiracy ideas which he'll parrot continually. He'll file frivolous lawsuits about everything, saying that whoever is now president must be impeached immediately, based on some dumbshit bogus claim that Hannity is peddling. In short, he'll continue to be a jackass attention whore, and his moron followers will continue to lap up his bullshit.

Trancephalic 03-08-2020 08:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by QuickSilver (Post 22177979)
He will have to be carried out, kicking, screaming and grabbing onto the hand rails, like a whiny little bitch. Then, won't shut up about it for the rest of his worthless life. Which, I hope, will be spent in courts fighting a litany of charges of corruption and other malfeasance.

I just hope someone has the wherewithal to record the event, and in HD.

His whackadoo base will deny it's authentic, but I don't care; it'll be for rest of us.

I'll watch it on repeat for years.

BigT 03-08-2020 08:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by UltraVires (Post 22178447)
Did you read about 3 inches down on your link?

Have you paid attention to Trump? He thinks the election he won was questionable, claiming that there was massive voter fraud for why he didn't win by more.

The guy has a track record of claiming fraud, that everything is unfair. The media merely commenting on what he has done is a fraud and should be stopped. COVID-19 was a fraud, because it makes him look bad. His way of spinning any negative attention at all is to tell his supporters that it's "fake news." And the guy famously threatens to sue anyone who makes him look bad.

But even if he doesn't sue, I cannot see a version of Trump who doesn't claim that the election was rigged. He does so when he won, so why wouldn't he when he lost?

Your comparison to past presidents who lacked Trump's level of narcissism is unconvincing. Anything that treats Trump like "just another president" is unconvincing. Even his supporters recognize that he is a different beast.

guizot 03-08-2020 08:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by UltraVires (Post 22178221)
I guess I was trying to answer a question and did not realize that this was the 5000th how evil Trump is thread.

I know! It's so unjust, isn't it? Just because he's a piece of shit doesn't mean he's evil! Can't a president be a piece of shit without all these hysterics?

Hampshire 03-08-2020 08:43 PM

Oh he’ll leave leave without being dragged alright. But unlike past presidents in recent memory, Bush Junior and Senior, Clinton, Obama, who drop out of the limelight and stay fairly quiet about politics, you just know Trump isn’t going to be able to keep his big yapper shut.
To be able to sit in a gaudy New York apartment in his underwear and play critic of whomever replaces him is his dream. At the same time re-writing recent history about his time in office as some fantasy of how rosy everything was and how horrible it’s now going to be. A legend in his own mind. And his followers will be there at his feet blindly lapping up the loads of bullshit.

Johnny L.A. 03-08-2020 08:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hampshire (Post 22178575)
To be able to sit in a gaudy New York apartment in his underwear and play critic of whomever replaces him is his dream.

I believe that was his goal in the 2016 election. Unfortunately, he won.

Kent Clark 03-08-2020 09:38 PM

So what if Trump doesn't want to leave? The presidency does not depend on some concept of squatter's rights in the Oval Office. If Trump loses, then he ceases to be President at noon on January 20, period, full stop.

Sure, it could be a little messy. OTOH incoming President Sanders Biden could make things messy for citizen Trump. And the new President has a lot more power to make things messy than the ex-President.

nearwildheaven 03-08-2020 09:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Trancephalic (Post 22178514)
I just hope someone has the wherewithal to record the event, and in HD.

His whackadoo base will deny it's authentic, but I don't care; it'll be for rest of us.

I'll watch it on repeat for years.

Just the concession would be popcorn-popping territory enough.

What I would really like to see is if (and there are lots of ifs here) Biden is the candidate and picks Buttigieg to be his veep, and Pence's reaction to the whole thing, whether they win or not.

(Pete won't be Bernie's Veep, because those two very obviously despise each other.)

Superdude 03-08-2020 10:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by UltraVires (Post 22178221)

To others: Trump will claim the election was illegitimate? You mean like Gore? Like Kerry?

Neither of them were incumbents.

Bookkeeper 03-08-2020 10:20 PM

I'd worry more about how much he can fuck up the government and country with daily executive orders, even more incompetent "acting" department heads and appointees, "national emergency" actions, waves of pardons, and other temper tantrums between election day and inauguration day.

snowthx 03-08-2020 10:28 PM

If he refuses to leave, he'll be frogmarched out, El Chapo style.

He still has not accepted the results of the 2016 popular vote where Hilary beat him, so I expect if he loses this year he will claim voter fraud, and tie up the election in the courts for a while until some manufactured crisis can emerge, where he can claim staying in office is "for the good of the country."

Smapti 03-08-2020 11:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by snowthx (Post 22178714)
If he refuses to leave, he'll be frogmarched out, El Chapo style.

He still has not accepted the results of the 2016 popular vote where Hilary beat him, so I expect if he loses this year he will claim voter fraud, and tie up the election in the courts for a while until some manufactured crisis can emerge, where he can claim staying in office is "for the good of the country."

He can claim whatever he wants, but the Constitution contains no mechanism for extending the president's term.

RioRico 03-09-2020 02:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by snowthx (Post 22178714)
If he refuses to leave, he'll be frogmarched out, El Chapo style.

When?

Shodan 03-09-2020 07:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bobot
Will Trump leave office peacefully and normally if he loses the election?




Yes. If he refuses, he will be escorted out.

Quote:

Originally Posted by RioRico (Post 22178481)
When?

At this rate, January 2025.

I begin to regret the ban on betting. I understand the rationale for the ban, but after the 500th iteration of the same thread, the temptation to say "put up or shut up" becomes strong.
Quote:

Originally Posted by Superdude
Neither of them were incumbents.

Gore was the incumbent Vice-President, and staffers vandalized the offices out of spite.

Regards,
Shodan

Superdude 03-09-2020 08:01 AM

Incumbent VP is different than an incumbent PotUS, IMHO. However, your point is taken.

Ludovic 03-09-2020 08:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Smapti (Post 22178803)
He can claim whatever he wants, but the Constitution contains no mechanism for extending the president's term.

Even if he's cleared on impeachment?

Peter Morris 03-09-2020 08:29 AM

I think a valid comparison would be the fall of Margaret Thatcher. Her own followers turned against her. She ranted and screamed and even cried in public about it, whining about how unfair nit all was. But eventually, when it came time to leave, she walked out of 10 Downing Street. She did not have to be carried out.

I doubt Trump will really be any worse.

AK84 03-09-2020 08:35 AM

^^
This. It depends on whether there are sufficient Republicans to support him.
In the US a person does not become President-elect on election night. Or when the electoral college votes. They become it when the result is certified by Congress.

If the election is disputed enough, even with an ostensible Biden/Sanders win, do you guys really think (lets say there is a Republican majority in Congress) that the 'Pubs will not support Trump.
They refuse to certify Biden and instead force it to the House? Voting in state delegations? You think they aren't capable of that. Refuse the returns from enough states to prevent a 270.

Fiveyearlurker 03-09-2020 08:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shodan (Post 22179030)
At this rate, January 2025.

I begin to regret the ban on betting. I understand the rationale for the ban, but after the 500th iteration of the same thread, the temptation to say "put up or shut up" becomes strong.Gore was the incumbent Vice-President, and staffers vandalized the offices out of spite.

Regards,
Shodan

Gore had a legitimate reason to contest the election, as would Bush have had the few hundred Florida votes been in the other direction. Note that this was part of the OP:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fiveyearlurker (Post 22177950)
=Biden has won handily with a solid popular vote as well as electoral victory. There is no serious reason to contest anything. There are no legitimate irregularities.


divemaster 03-09-2020 09:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bookkeeper (Post 22178692)
I'd worry more about how much he can fuck up the government and country with daily executive orders, even more incompetent "acting" department heads and appointees, "national emergency" actions, waves of pardons, and other temper tantrums between election day and inauguration day.

Yeah. This is my concern. Of course he'll physically leave at the appointed time. He'll get some TV show and bloviate and whip his masses into an Internet frenzy, but that's just a bunch of noise. But he can do serious damage during his lame duck period.


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