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-   -   March 17: the overshadowed-by-covid-19 primaries (FL,IL,OH,AZ) (https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=891582)

RTFirefly 03-13-2020 08:28 AM

March 17: the overshadowed-by-covid-19 primaries (FL,IL,OH,AZ)
 
On Tuesday, March 17, four states with 577 delegates will vote: FL (219), IL (155), OH (136), and AZ (67). Once those states have voted, the voting for 61.5% of the delegates will have been completed.

This is the last big batch of delegates to be chosen for quite a while: between March 17 and April 28, when six Northeastern states with 663 delegates will vote, there will not be a day when more than 107 delegates are up for grabs; it'll be just dribs and drabs.

So, which geezer will all the retirees in FL and AZ vote for? Will Bernie show that he has as much appeal to the Midwestern voters of Ohio and Illinois as he had last week with the voters of Michigan?

We're all hanging on the edge of our seats, I know. :p But I figured a thread would be in order.

campp 03-13-2020 08:33 AM

In Arizona, 538 shows Biden leading over Bernie. We're becoming a purple state, and none too soon. Mark Kelly is leading McSally for the Senate race, so that's awesome. McSally was appointed by the Governor when McCain died.

DinoR 03-13-2020 12:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RTFirefly (Post 22187439)
So, which geezer will all the retirees in FL and AZ vote for?

I think it is probably safe to guess which geezer the Cuban and Venezuelan Americans in Florida will vote for. The bright side for Sanders is that Florida is a closed primary. That limits the potential damage among a Republican leaning demographic.

RTFirefly 03-13-2020 05:46 PM

Nate Silver tweets:
Quote:

If you're wondering why my tone implies that the primary is basically resolved, here are our polling averages for the 4 states voting on Tuesday:

FL: Biden +42.8
IL: Biden +29.9
OH: Biden +24.6
AZ: Biden +24.5
Fat lady's warming up her vocal cords.

Bijou Drains 03-13-2020 06:59 PM

If Sanders get blown out in all 4 states I don't see how he can stay in the race. As Yogi Berra said, it ain't over til it's over. :) It should be over for Sanders Tues.

dalej42 03-13-2020 07:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bijou Drains (Post 22188769)
If Sanders get blown out in all 4 states I don't see how he can stay in the race. As Yogi Berra said, it ain't over til it's over. :) It should be over for Sanders Tues.

He can’t have his massive ego stroking rallies. The news will be all Corona, it would be pointless. I’ve had MSNBC in the background all day and don’t think I’ve seen his waggling finger yet.

Sherrerd 03-13-2020 08:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bijou Drains (Post 22188769)
If Sanders get blown out in all 4 states I don't see how he can stay in the race. As Yogi Berra said, it ain't over til it's over. :) It should be over for Sanders Tues.

Bet he stays in, even if the margins for Biden are huge.

He'll find a way to rationalize it.

dalej42 03-13-2020 08:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sherrerd (Post 22188890)
Bet he stays in, even if the margins for Biden are huge.

He'll find a way to rationalize it.

All states haven’t had the chance to vote!!! And I want to get my message out. Same shit as 2016z

Sherrerd 03-13-2020 08:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dalej42 (Post 22188895)
All states haven’t had the chance to vote!!! And I want to get my message out. Same shit as 2016z

Yeah.

Sanders is not even remotely on to himself. When I think of him I'm inevitably reminded of Richard Feynman's immortal remark:

Quote:

The first principle is that you must not fool yourself—and you are the easiest person to fool.

Maserschmidt 03-13-2020 09:48 PM

What are the odds that all four of those primaries take place as scheduled?

JKellyMap 03-14-2020 06:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Maserschmidt (Post 22189001)
What are the odds that all four of those primaries take place as scheduled?

I think they will. Caucuses would be another story, no?

Bijou Drains 03-14-2020 06:28 AM

older folks may stay home and that could depress Biden's numbers. Can't blame them for staying home at this point.

Maserschmidt 03-14-2020 02:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JKellyMap (Post 22189261)
I think they will. Caucuses would be another story, no?

Well, Louisiana postponed, which is what got me thinking about it.

Anny Middon 03-14-2020 02:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Maserschmidt (Post 22189001)
What are the odds that all four of those primaries take place as scheduled?

Illinois will hold its election. I'm an election judge, and the only major change in election plans is that polling places in long-term care and senior living facilities have been moved. I'm pretty sure this will quite dramatically reduce the number of older people voting.

ETA: I'm bringing my crochet project to the polling place. I envision that turnout will be very light.

dalej42 03-14-2020 03:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Anny Middon (Post 22189898)
Illinois will hold its election. I'm an election judge, and the only major change in election plans is that polling places in long-term care and senior living facilities have been moved. I'm pretty sure this will quite dramatically reduce the number of older people voting.

ETA: I'm bringing my crochet project to the polling place. I envision that turnout will be very light.

Didn’t think about that, I used to vote at that senior living center on Briar.

Maserschmidt 03-14-2020 05:41 PM

Georgia just postponed.

https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regi...mpression=true

Maserschmidt 03-15-2020 11:53 AM

I suspect the virus will keep more older people away, meaning some advantage to Sanders. But Biden has such big polling leads in those states it probably doesn’t matter.

dalej42 03-15-2020 01:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Maserschmidt (Post 22191199)
I suspect the virus will keep more older people away, meaning some advantage to Sanders. But Biden has such big polling leads in those states it probably doesn’t matter.

And, the college students are now spread out and dealing with the transition to online classes, so that could mitigate it some as Sanders might lose some votes.

bobot 03-15-2020 06:23 PM

I'm an Illinois voter, and couldn't tell you the last time I skipped an election. However, I'm considering skipping the primary. I'm not certain, but I'm thinking about it. I wouldn't skip the general, not with Trump on the ticket, but there I'll support whoever the Democrat is. Covid-19 is why I'm considering skipping the primary.

Biden is expected to win Illinois, and that's who I'd vote for. I'll let you know Tuesday, this virus crap seems to get weirder by the hour, so Tuesday could be a long way away.
(I took my stepdaughter to a restaurant in Orland Park today, and was a little hesitant to do that. But she was in favor, and we went. TBy the time we got home it was announced that tomorrow all sit down restaurants and bars in Illinois are going to be closed for the next 2 weeks plus.)

psychobunny 03-16-2020 01:56 AM

With the new CDC guidelines, I don’t see how they can justify holding primaries. I think turnout will be light and skewed younger which may favor Sanders. OTOH, never count out the old folks. They are the ones who always show up in snowstorms when the younger ones cancel. I just wish that these four big states had already voted. No matter what, the results will be skewed.

Maserschmidt 03-16-2020 02:54 PM

Mike DeWine is recommending that the Ohio primary be bumped to June.

dalej42 03-16-2020 04:31 PM

I’ve been reporting posts left and right on social media. These Bros aren’t particularly smart, they still have Bernie stuff in their profile as they encourage older voters to stay at home tomorrow for health. Utterly despicable what these shitheads will do for their revolution.

dalej42 03-16-2020 04:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bobot (Post 22191821)
I'm an Illinois voter, and couldn't tell you the last time I skipped an election. However, I'm considering skipping the primary. I'm not certain, but I'm thinking about it. I wouldn't skip the general, not with Trump on the ticket, but there I'll support whoever the Democrat is. Covid-19 is why I'm considering skipping the primary.

Biden is expected to win Illinois, and that's who I'd vote for. I'll let you know Tuesday, this virus crap seems to get weirder by the hour, so Tuesday could be a long way away.
(I took my stepdaughter to a restaurant in Orland Park today, and was a little hesitant to do that. But she was in favor, and we went. TBy the time we got home it was announced that tomorrow all sit down restaurants and bars in Illinois are going to be closed for the next 2 weeks plus.)

I’ll encourage you to vote, the amount of Bernie ‘stay home for your health’ stuff is sickening on social media.

dalej42 03-16-2020 04:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bobot (Post 22191821)
I'm an Illinois voter, and couldn't tell you the last time I skipped an election. However, I'm considering skipping the primary. I'm not certain, but I'm thinking about it. I wouldn't skip the general, not with Trump on the ticket, but there I'll support whoever the Democrat is. Covid-19 is why I'm considering skipping the primary.

Biden is expected to win Illinois, and that's who I'd vote for. I'll let you know Tuesday, this virus crap seems to get weirder by the hour, so Tuesday could be a long way away.
(I took my stepdaughter to a restaurant in Orland Park today, and was a little hesitant to do that. But she was in favor, and we went. TBy the time we got home it was announced that tomorrow all sit down restaurants and bars in Illinois are going to be closed for the next 2 weeks plus.)

I’ll encourage you to vote, the amount of Bernie ‘stay home for your health’ stuff is sickening on social media.

DrDeth 03-16-2020 05:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RTFirefly (Post 22188648)
Nate Silver tweets:
Fat lady's warming up her vocal cords.

And FL has a lot of delegates, and Sanders has no chance.

Sherrerd 03-16-2020 06:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dalej42 (Post 22193713)
I’ll encourage you to vote, the amount of Bernie ‘stay home for your health’ stuff is sickening on social media.

Obviously those accounts will never mention the success several states (Washington, Hawaii, Colorado, and Oregon) have had, for a long time, with vote-by-mail:


Quote:

... Four of the states—Oregon (2000), Washington (2011), Colorado (2013) and Hawaii (2019) —hold all elections entirely by mail. In California, some counties are currently permitted to conduct all-mail elections. After 2020, the option will be available to all counties in the state. Utah permits individual counties to determine if they would like to conduct all-mail election or not and all counties are expected to do so in 2020. Other states permit all-mail elections in certain circumstances, such as for special elections, municipal elections, when there is a smaller voting population in a given district, or at the discretion of the county clerk. See below for state-by-state statutes. ...
https://www.ncsl.org/research/electi...elections.aspx

Bernie seems convinced that putting off primaries will result in a tidal wave of votes for him. I'm not sure why he believes that might happen. But in any case, this lack of certainty in the Dem race all works to the benefit of Trump.

DrDeth 03-16-2020 09:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sherrerd (Post 22193884)
Obviously those accounts will never mention the success several states (Washington, Hawaii, Colorado, and Oregon) have had, for a long time, with vote-by-mail:


https://www.ncsl.org/research/electi...elections.aspx

Bernie seems convinced that putting off primaries will result in a tidal wave of votes for him. I'm not sure why he believes that might happen. But in any case, this lack of certainty in the Dem race all works to the benefit of Trump.

I think Bernie just wants to draw out the election.

I have a nasty suspicion that this is just to punish the DNC by giving trump another four years.

digs 03-16-2020 09:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bobot (Post 22191821)
Covid-19 is why I'm considering skipping the primary...

Does Illinois not have absentee voting? After reading this thread, I just sent my email to the city requesting an absentee ballot (which they'll email to me... no human contact, no germs!).

dalej42 03-16-2020 09:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by digs (Post 22194200)
Does Illinois not have absentee voting? After reading this thread, I just sent my email to the city requesting an absentee ballot (which they'll email to me... no human contact, no germs!).

We do, but the ballot has to be postmarked by Election Day which is tomorrow

Maserschmidt 03-16-2020 09:48 PM

Is anyone following the Ohio clusterfuck? First DeWine tried to shut it down, then a judge apparently ruled he couldn’t, then the top health official closed it, then someone in the judge's office said the judge never said it had to go forward, he only ruled that the specific application to stop it wasn’t being upheld. Chaos.

ZipperJJ 03-16-2020 09:52 PM

Ohio governor called to postpone the elections less than 24 hours before the polls opened. Judge overruled his order. They sent Ohio’s favorite new person, Dr. Amy Acton, to call a stare of emergency and cancel the election for reals. The story is ongoing, I think.


https://m.clevescene.com/scene-and-h...ff-again-maybe

I personally didn’t vote early because I didn’t have enough info yet to decide between the candidates. I was biding my time. I wasn’t sure if I was going to bother to vote Tuesday but there is an issue I want to pass (parks levy).

The governor is right - old and immunocompromised people shouldn’t have to choose between their health and their right to vote. They need to suspend it and give everyone a chance.

Maserschmidt 03-16-2020 09:55 PM

Never mind what I wrote, the secretary of state of Ohio just sent a letter to all the election boards and said it’s been postponed until June 2.

Maserschmidt 03-16-2020 10:01 PM

I should mention that the Ohio House of Representatives sent a simultaneous note saying that Mike DeWine didn’t have the right to pause the primaries, and that they were to continue.

psychobunny 03-16-2020 10:43 PM

On the one hand, kudos to the governor for trying to do the right thing unlike other states. OTOH, this is an absolute mess. So glad my state already voted.

Happy Lendervedder 03-16-2020 10:56 PM

The times we live in keep getting interestinger and interestinger.

bobot 03-17-2020 05:34 AM

The Governor of Illinois has declared that we will have no gatherings of 50 or more people. I'm not eactly sure what means of enforcement are available, but today is election day. There could easily be state sanctioned gatherings of 50 or more people.

Ludovic 03-17-2020 06:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DinoR (Post 22187982)
I think it is probably safe to guess which geezer the Cuban and Venezuelan Americans in Florida will vote for. The bright side for Sanders is that Florida is a closed primary. That limits the potential damage among a Republican leaning demographic.

I think a closed primary would help Biden, when you combine the effects of Republican trolling, leftist Bernie supporters for whom the Democratic party is too conservative to join, and "Burn it all down" Trump-Sanders people.

Nonsuch 03-17-2020 09:44 AM

Closed primaries definitely hurt Sanders, and were a constant source of Berner complaint back in 2016.

Jophiel 03-17-2020 10:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bobot (Post 22194544)
The Governor of Illinois has declared that we will have no gatherings of 50 or more people. I'm not eactly sure what means of enforcement are available, but today is election day. There could easily be state sanctioned gatherings of 50 or more people.

Maybe, but not at my polling location. When I went, it was me and two other people (and the polling location is for two precincts). Only three election judges for each precinct, the legal minimum.

DrDeth 03-17-2020 01:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nonsuch (Post 22194897)
Closed primaries definitely hurt Sanders, and were a constant source of Berner complaint back in 2016.

All they have to do is register Dem- and for whom they are trying to nominate.

I think all primaries shoudl be closed.

DSeid 03-17-2020 01:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ZipperJJ (Post 22194215)

... The governor is right - old and immunocompromised people shouldn’t have to choose between their health and their right to vote. ...

Better for an executive to have the power to take away that choice?

Be aware that there is a reasonable possibility that we will be in a public health crisis next November, worse than we are now.

Should the president have the power then to decide that voting is too dangerous and suspend elections until some further notice? Oh we’ll do it later, when it is safe for everyone to vote. Whenever the executive decides that is.

BobLibDem 03-17-2020 01:35 PM

I think Bernie needs to drop out tomorrow. By continuing the fight, he's exposing people to corona needlessly. He drops out, Biden is the nominee. He hangs on and the remainder of the primaries go on, Biden is the nominee and tens of thousands if not more people get infected and hundreds if not thousands die. He has put his heart and soul into running for 6 years now, but it's time to abandon the dream. He will never be president, he needs to go back to advocating for his causes in the Senate. Or better still, retire and let a real Democrat have the seat.

enalzi 03-17-2020 01:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BobLibDem (Post 22195324)
I think Bernie needs to drop out tomorrow. By continuing the fight, he's exposing people to corona needlessly. He drops out, Biden is the nominee. He hangs on and the remainder of the primaries go on, Biden is the nominee and tens of thousands if not more people get infected and hundreds if not thousands die. He has put his heart and soul into running for 6 years now, but it's time to abandon the dream. He will never be president, he needs to go back to advocating for his causes in the Senate. Or better still, retire and let a real Democrat have the seat.

Uh, you know that there are other primaries going on, not just the presidential race right?

BobLibDem 03-17-2020 01:38 PM

True enough, but those can take place in the summer.

bobot 03-17-2020 03:36 PM

I voted. It was 20 after 6 this morning, and my trip to and from work takes me right past my polling place. It looked very quiet, and I allow a few minutes leeway on my work journey. There was no line, and according to the vote counting machine I was the 9th voter at that time. So there you go Joe Biden, bring it home now.

dalej42 03-17-2020 04:08 PM

Ugh, just saw Bernie trolls invaded my Pete groups on Facebook and encouraging people to vote for Pete so they can ‘vote their conscience’

dalej42 03-17-2020 04:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BobLibDem (Post 22195324)
I think Bernie needs to drop out tomorrow. By continuing the fight, he's exposing people to corona needlessly. He drops out, Biden is the nominee. He hangs on and the remainder of the primaries go on, Biden is the nominee and tens of thousands if not more people get infected and hundreds if not thousands die. He has put his heart and soul into running for 6 years now, but it's time to abandon the dream. He will never be president, he needs to go back to advocating for his causes in the Senate. Or better still, retire and let a real Democrat have the seat.

I’m just blowing off steam but I think he should be expelled from the Senate

dalej42 03-17-2020 04:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BobLibDem (Post 22195324)
I think Bernie needs to drop out tomorrow. By continuing the fight, he's exposing people to corona needlessly. He drops out, Biden is the nominee. He hangs on and the remainder of the primaries go on, Biden is the nominee and tens of thousands if not more people get infected and hundreds if not thousands die. He has put his heart and soul into running for 6 years now, but it's time to abandon the dream. He will never be president, he needs to go back to advocating for his causes in the Senate. Or better still, retire and let a real Democrat have the seat.

I’m just blowing off steam but I think he should be expelled from the Senate

iiandyiiii 03-17-2020 04:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dalej42 (Post 22195633)
I’m just blowing off steam but I think he should be expelled from the Senate

Why stop there? All his supporters in the House and Senate too! Hell, why not get all his rank-and-file supporters fired from their jobs? Let's doom the Democratic party for decades by deliberately targeting and pissing off young progressives!

Or maybe we could try to welcome young progressives into the party? Maybe the future of the party is more important than settling scores with the progressives you despise?

dalej42 03-17-2020 06:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BobLibDem (Post 22195324)
I think Bernie needs to drop out tomorrow. By continuing the fight, he's exposing people to corona needlessly. He drops out, Biden is the nominee. He hangs on and the remainder of the primaries go on, Biden is the nominee and tens of thousands if not more people get infected and hundreds if not thousands die. He has put his heart and soul into running for 6 years now, but it's time to abandon the dream. He will never be president, he needs to go back to advocating for his causes in the Senate. Or better still, retire and let a real Democrat have the seat.

I’m just blowing off steam but I think he should be expelled from the Senate


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