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Old 01-26-2011, 02:50 PM
Munch Munch is offline
Join Date: Mar 2000
Location: Parts Unknown
Posts: 22,033
I recall seeing a story on a high school coach who refused to punt. He'd go for it on 4th and 50 from his own 1 yard line. It was all based on his team's expected probability to score compared to his opponent's probability to score (the idea being that punting from the endzone is going to give the ball to your opponent at the 40, which has a high probability in resulting in a score - and giving it up on 1 has an even higher prob., but you still get the ball back via kickoff, but with the smaller added chance of converting).

I wonder if those numbers are available, as well as applicable to giving expected probability to score for each scenario of taking a timeout v. taking a penalty.