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Old 04-23-2017, 01:07 PM
Riemann Riemann is online now
Join Date: Nov 2015
Location: Santa Fe, NM, USA
Posts: 4,250
Frustrating prior thread here:

So far as I can discern, the NOAA/NWS provide forecasts for certain time windows that are coherent probabilities, see the last post there. Then the popular news services use invalid methods (I don't know exactly what) to obtain their "probabilities" for shorter or longer time periods. I think that the numbers that you see on popular news services for hourly probabilities are essentially nonsense.

Last edited by Riemann; 04-23-2017 at 01:12 PM.