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Old 04-23-2017, 07:44 PM
crucible crucible is offline
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: North Carolina
Posts: 1,301
Our favorite local weatherman here often reminds us that, even though it will likely rain sometime during the day, the chances are, it will be not raining most of the time, and that outdoor events might be interrupted, but not washed out. In our area, we see a lot of rain cells coming up from the southwest, headed toward the East Coast. Some days we get hit by several of them, other days they miss us completely. The story, though, is essentially the same, the same 30 or 40% chance of rain every hour from mid morning until evening. Nighttime predictions seem a bit more likely to be accurate.

Anyhow, surely they can, based on history if nothing else, suggest that the actual chance of rain at any given hour is less than half the chance of rain sometime during the day, couldn't they?