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Old 09-23-2017, 11:48 AM
Cayuga Cayuga is offline
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: Connecticut, USA
Posts: 1,018
I think it happened this past week, the first week of the new season. And yes, Drew looked a little more padded.

There are 20 slots marked $.05 $1.
$1 wins automatically.
2 spins totaling $1 also win.

So in one spin, a player has a 5% chance of winning.
Assuming he doesn't get $1, he has a 5% chance of winning on his second spin.

A-a-a-a-and that's as far as I can go. I know the total odds of one person winning once isn't 0.5 x 0.5 = 0.25 = 2.5% (because if you win the first time, you don't spin the second time (I think that matters, right?)), but I don't know what it is.

Do we need to look at two spins as one event with 20 x 20 = 400 possible outcomes? Or 380, since you don't spin twice if you get $1 the first time. There are 11 favorable outcomes ($1, $.05/$.95, $.10/$.90 $.45/$.55, $.50/$.50). So the odds are 11/380, which is roughly a 2.9% chance of winning. As for that happening five times in a row, I don't know.

I realize I could be way off base on this high school math was a long time ago. I'd really be interested in having someone explain.

(And to keep Chronos happy, let's say "on those five attempts," not "at any point in the run of the show.")

(Is "on any given five consecutive attempts" the same as "on those five attempts"?)