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Old 04-10-2019, 09:49 PM
DSeid's Avatar
DSeid is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Chicago, IL
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sherrerd View Post

... Do we have any numbers on the probable size of your groups, by the way?
Yes we do.
Quote:
Nine percent of Obama voters voted for Trump while 5 percent voted for a third-party candidate or a write-in, while 5 percent of Romney voters supported Clinton and 6 percent voted for a third-party candidate or write-in.
This study is also interesting. It looks beyond Obama-Trump and Romney-Clinton and throws in 2018 midterm voting as well.
Quote:
we find that Romney-Trump voters who defected to the Democrats in 2018 typically came from the suburbs, while Obama-Trump voters who returned to the Democrats in 2018 were split between living in suburban and rural areas. A plurality of loyal Republicans in our sample lived in rural areas, while Democrats were split between living in urban and in suburban areas. Consistent with some other work on the 2018 electorate, we find that voters who shifted from President Obama to the Republicans in recent years lopsidedly live in rural areas.

Not surprisingly, self-identified political moderates formed pluralities among the vote switcher categories, and formed an outright majority of Romney voters who have since gone Democratic in 2016 and 2018. But fully 42 percent of Obama-Trump voters who returned to the Democratic Party in 2018 identified as conservative, compared with 33 percent who identified as liberal. Fully 54 percent of Romney-Trump voters who defected to a Democratic candidate in 2018 identified as conservative or very conservative.
On policy Obama-Trump voters tend to want strong border security and support the Green New Deal. Pretty much everyone but the loyal Republicans specifically like the idea of pollution fees charged on businesses that produce high levels of greenhouse gases. Obama-Trump voters are pretty split on gun control but Romney-Clinton ones are strong supporters. And a very interesting one - for both the Obama-Trump and Romney-Clinton voters those who voted D in 2018 show support Medicare for All while those who voted R tend not to.