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Old 05-10-2019, 04:27 PM
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octopus is offline
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Originally Posted by Budget Player Cadet View Post
Okay. So there's the theory. You can list a non-trivial number of reasons why transwomen might have a competitive advantage over women.

So given this, would we expect to see:
- a disproportionally high number of transwomen in high-level pro sports?
- a proportionally high number of transwomen in high-level pro sports?
- a disproportionally low number of transwomen in high-level pro sports?

Because in practice, it's that last one. Despite what Shodan wrongly asserts about FtM athletes (and seriously how hard is it to google before you say something so wrong), the first out transgendered olympic athlete was Chris Mosier - a FtM transman. Meanwhile, the number of out transwomen is still... zero.

Transwomen occasionally see a modicum of success (Gregory is the first new case to make the rounds in TERF circles since, what, Laurel Hubbard two years ago?), which one would expect given that there are millions of them. And every time that happens, without fail, someone tries to take that individual success as proof that transwomen have an unfair advantage. And the evidence just isn't there. We know there are tons of advantages men have... But we also know that HRT leads to many massive changes in physiology, and we also know that post-HRT transwomen are not disproportionately represented in high-level sports.

There's this concept in the smash community - "theorycrafting". Trying to figure out how a matchup would work just by looking at the individual tools the characters have. That's sort of what you're doing here - "Oh, look at factor X, Y, Z, transwomen should have an advantage over ciswomen". The thing about theorycrafting is that it's notoriously unreliable, to the point where someone arguing, "Well, in theory the matchup should work well for character X" when actual results show character X getting consistently beaten gets laughed out of the room.

I have no idea if Mary Gregory has an unfair advantage over the other women participating. But I don't think you do either. And if she does, I'm not sure it's any different from any possible "unfair advantages" that, say, Kate Ledecky has, and nobody's trying to take away her medals.
C’mon now. There are folks running in high school girls’ races that have a demonstrated advantage. Is that fair? Should sport just abolish so-called ‘gender’ categories? I am beginning to think that’s what we should do.