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Old 02-20-2019, 06:26 AM
kevlaw is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: San Jose, CA
Posts: 762

What will the UK do wrt Brexit?


Possibilities in order of likelihood:
  1. May negotiates a cosmetic change to the backstop (like, the backstop will be yellow instead of purple) that gives more moderate ERGers cover to vote for it. May's Deal passes. BREXIT.
  2. No change to deal. Vote goes down to the wire and May wins the game of chicken. Moderate remainers bottle out and vote for the deal. BREXIT.
  3. Tory moderates grab the steering wheel and negotiate May's Deal plus a Customs Union (AKA, Corbyn's Deal). BREXIT.
  4. Article 50 suspended. Government falls. National Coalition negotiates Norway+. BREXIT in name only.
  5. Article 50 suspended repeatedly and indefinitely. We always intend to Brexit but never actually get around to it. Schrodinger's BREXIT.
  6. Article 50 withdrawn unilaterally with a promise to hold a second referendum to be decided by single transferable vote May's Deal vs Corbyn's Deal vs No Deal Brexit vs No Brexit.
  7. Crash out with no deal. BREXIT
  8. Article 50 withdrawn unilaterally with a promise that we never need mention Brexit ever again. NO BREXIT