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Old 06-08-2019, 08:40 AM
Sandwich is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Suffolk
Posts: 444
Let me try again a different way, in a short punchy statement suitable for modern social media.

It seems to me that given where we are today, once the Conservatives are led by a committed leaver, then it is inevitable that Brexit will happen relatively quickly. The only question is if it will be under a formal withdrawal agreement or without one. Exiting without an agreement seems unthinkable, and the only withdrawal agreement available is deeply unsatisfactory to people of all shades of opinion. Does this mean that Brexit won't happen? No, because there is a relatively minor tweak to the withdrawal agreement which would satisfy the EU, the Conservative Party, the Labour Party, British voters and most Northern Irish voters. That provides a viable way through the morass.

Other outcomes are possible, but none seem likely. No better withdrawal agreement is possible, no deal is deeply unattractive, there is no remainer party which can win a general election if held soon, there is no mechanism to delay exit without a persuasive reason, there is no persuasive reason which is going to emerge before 31 October this year. The Conservative Party has the initiative, and it would be willing to exit on no deal, particularly if it can credibly pin the blame on Labour.

Once you have eliminated all the almost impossible outcomes, the merely unlikely outcome must follow.