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Old 06-08-2019, 09:46 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sandwich View Post
You missed the clever bit. If the new Conservative leader offers to Brexit on the current withdrawal agreement but with the backstop reduced to NI only, then that severely reduces scope for Labour to call a no confidence motion. Because the backstop works for everyone if it is limited to NI.

For a start, several northern Labour MPs would see this as an easy way out of their dilemma, representing leaver constituencies.

Second, it calls Corbyn's bluff, since he is a leaver too. Put it another way, something is going to happen, and it isn't Corbyn successfully leading a campaign for the UK to remain in the EU, nor is it Corbyn negotiating a better withdrawal agreement with the EU. (I'm sure Elvis1ives will support me on that! ) So, one way or another, the outcome is going to be the UK leaving the EU, I am merely setting out a way for that to happen without no deal, which no-one wants.

Third, it changes the narrative around a general election, to one that the Conservatives easily win. The process would be, Boris (for it is he) makes the proposal I suggest. Labour says, no, we aren't leaving on that basis, let's have a general election. Boris says fine, and agrees with Nigel that in the constituencies currently held by Labour, half will be fought by a Brexit Party candidate and half by a Conservative, provided no Brexit Party candidates oppose sitting Conservative MPs. The Conservative / Brexit alliance wins the election and either exits with the deal I suggest or, having done all that they reasonably could to avoid it, with no deal.

The Conservatives currently fear a general election, because they will be demolished as a punishment for betraying the will of the people. If they pivot to genuinely trying to leave the EU on the best terms possible, then they win the next general election easily, either under their own brand or in association with the Faragists.
I think you're making too many unjustified assumptions.

Many will see creating a border between the UK and NI as breaking up the UK. You're assuming this will be acceptable, but many Remainers as well as Leavers find it highly unacceptable.

You're assuming that leaving the EU is inevitable, but I think it's fairly likely that Brexit will be cancelled after a second referendum.

You're assuming that the Bexit Party wants a deal, but they would actually prefer to leave with no deal. You say that no one wants no-deal, but that's simply not the case. Both Faragists and the ERG want no-deal.

You're assuming the Tories will make an alliance with the Brexit party, but I greatly doubt that. It would lead to a split in the Tory party if they tried.