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Old 08-15-2019, 05:40 AM
PatrickLondon is offline
Join Date: Mar 2015
Location: London
Posts: 3,563
Originally Posted by UDS View Post
The only way to achieve a deal is to have a pro-deal party that's realistic about what deal is attainable. (Labour may be attempting to fill this slot.) The problem here is that a great many Brexit supporters are not realistic about what deal is attainable, and it will be difficult to get them to vote for a party that is. And since Brexit voters, if they are a majority at all, are a very, very narrow majority, any split in the Brexit vote between different parties is a serious problem for the Brexit cause.
Both major parties are splitting three ways on this, in different proportions and along slightly different faultlines, which makes problems for all points of view.

The Tories split between the loyalists who accepted the deal (the biggest group in Parliament), the "nothing is good enough" Brexiteers (smaller in Parliament but noisy enough and well-enough supported among party members to get Johnson in) and those (probably fewest, but in the current Parliamentary arithmetic, enoough to put plenty of spanners in the works) who would rather stick as close to the EU as possible if they can't get Article 50 revoked.

Labour on the other hand is just about holding together a fudgy compromise position between those who would really rather revoke Article 50 (probably the majority of party members), those who fear the political consequences of not coming up with some sort of exit deal as long as it preserves at least something like the customs union (a fair number of their MPs, even if in their heart of hearts they'd rather revoke, or at least put it back to the people), and their own small minority who are fundamentally Brexiteers from a left perspective (many of whom are in Corbyn's inner circle).

Which leaves both Brexit and anti-Brexit voters equally at sea as between the major parties; remainers have the choice of voting LibDem or Green (or for the SNP or PC in Scotland/Wales), so their votes could well split that side of the argument. It's like trying to decide what colour to paint the living-room by using a kaleidoscope.