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Old 09-10-2019, 07:03 PM
KarlGauss's Avatar
KarlGauss is online now
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Join Date: Mar 2000
Location: Between pole and tropic
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The information needed to 'predict' a recession can't possibly exist, can it? Given the huge number of interacting (and I would say unknowable) systems that such predictions are based on, the best they can do is give likelihoods and their confidence intervals must be considerable (if they are even knowable).

Moreover, once a prediction was publicized, wouldn't the model necessarily have to be changed or at least be reiterated since the prediction itself would influence the economy (Hawthorne Effect, Psychohistory, . . . ) thereby rendering the earlier prediction obsolete?