View Single Post
Old 09-11-2019, 12:24 AM
Flyer is offline
Join Date: Feb 2012
Location: Colorado
Posts: 3,350
Originally Posted by KarlGauss View Post
The information needed to 'predict' a recession can't possibly exist, can it? Given the huge number of interacting (and I would say unknowable) systems that such predictions are based on, the best they can do is give likelihoods and their confidence intervals must be considerable (if they are even knowable).
Of course the information exists. It's existed for well over 100 years. It's called "the business cycle."

Haven't you ever read an Econ101 textbook?