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Old 03-20-2020, 02:36 PM
The wind of my soul is offline
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Washington, D.C.
Posts: 2,095
I acknowledge my ignorance here, and I am saying this largely in hopes that someone more knowledgeable than I am can fill in the gaps:

My understanding is that this virus started in China right around the beginning of the year. And now, China has gone two days without a single new reported case. And I don't think China imposed the kind of restrictions and lock-downs that the U.S. has. (I apologize to non-American dopers. When I see this question, my mind immediately jumps to the question of "What will the U.S. be like in six months? One year?" since that's the question of primary importance to me.)

Therefore, I would hesitantly guess that six months from now, the hoopla will have died down and the U.S. will be mostly back to normal. The economy will have taken a big hit, but it will be in recovery by that point.

But that scenario is incredibly optimistic and my confidence level is low. Part of me that feels like this severe quarantine is going to extend the impact of the virus, because if it spread like wildfire, then within six months most people would have acquired it, gotten over it, and become immune to it. Instead, it will remain in society in levels just high enough that many people will be nervous about going to restaurants and events for a good while afterwards, and that nervousness would quite apparent one year later (probably for several years), and the economy will take a long-term hit from that unless people can come up with innovative new ways to tap into the societal fear of crowds.