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Old 03-20-2020, 03:15 PM
FlikTheBlue is offline
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 2,171
Originally Posted by Dinsdale View Post
But ISTM that even if we flatten the curve, we'll want to basically continue self-isolating to keep the curve relatively flat. No? if we flatten the curve, how long before we expect it to start going down? 6 months? A year? No one knows?

I find the various timetables somewhat confusing. I assume the thought is, we impose these lims for 2 weeks, or a month, or whatever, and then see where we stand and whether we need to continue them or ramp them up. But it sorta suggests that things will be "different" - if not better - in 2 weeks, or a month, or whatever.
Given the information coming out of China, I think 2 months is enough to eliminate the virus from spreading for any country who imposes China level restrictions. Letís say another 2 months at most for people who are ill to get over the illness. That would mean by the middle of summer we could eliminate Covid-19. As an added benefit a multitude of other viruses would disappear as well (no more stomach flu ).

The problem is that achieving that outcome requires the whole world to participate in a China style lockdown. I think the odds of that happening are near zero.