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Old 03-20-2020, 04:11 PM
echoreply's Avatar
echoreply is offline
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Boulder, CO
Posts: 1,096
I keep saying we're on week 1 of 100. To me, that is likely worst case. Maybe every time we relax restrictions, the virus takes off again, the vaccines in development now don't work out, none of the antiviral treatments do much, acquired immunity is weak, etc. Best case is this all looks like a complete overreaction, and the pandemic burns out quickly with low impact. I think the worst case is much more likely than the best case.

My realistic case is that things here happen similar as to South Korea. We massively ramp up testing. As in a few billion test kits available in the US. People can be tested frequently and quarantined if they're sick. People exposed can be tested and quarantined or let go. Hospitals get swamped and pushed to the absolute limit, but wartime levels of production repurposing means that PPE, respirators, and drugs are no longer the limiting factors, but space and staffing always will be. Hopefully some off label drug use will be found to be therapeutic, so severe cases can be treated, rather than just ventilating and waiting.

We won't know if what we're doing now is working until May.