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Old 03-21-2020, 04:18 PM
Melbourne is offline
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 6,307
Originally Posted by not what you'd expect View Post
Maybe China isn't being totally honest with the numbers?

That's one rumor anyway.

China is handling the epidemic as a political crisis, and suppressing all discussion and reporting, but production is resuming. Either 60% of their population has already recovered from COVID-19 with no symptoms, or their epidemic is contained for the present without 60% infection. This doesn't require that China is being totally honest.

Eventually the world will go to 60% infection, or a vaccine will be developed. California will go to 60% infection if a vaccine is not developed first. California will go to 60% infection before a vaccine is developed if it's already too late, or if social distancing and isolation are not effective in California -- a place that is culturally distinct from both Wuhan and Venice.

One possible outcome is that one day, 2/3 of all our kids will get COVID-19 infections when they are young, just like any other cold, and only the few who miss it when young will get a serious case when older.

Last edited by Melbourne; 03-21-2020 at 04:20 PM.