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Old 03-21-2020, 11:19 PM
Melbourne is offline
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 6,318
China started in November, and if you think you are sick, they invite you to sign a form confirming that you are voluntarily self-quarantining. Then they post the form on your door, with a phone number your neighbors can call if they see you outside. If you break quarantine --- they have quarantine hospitals for people who break quarantine, and everybody knows it. Last week a journalist who had been reporting on the epidemic live streamed himself being arrested and taken away to a "quarantine hospital".

On the most hopeful estimates for the USA, the rate of increase will level out in a month, the total number will level out in 3 months, and in 6 months all will be back to normal.

Even if the critical hotspots are damped out, the virus will become more and more widespread, People who are in infection hotspots have higher risk now: that will come down if the infection is contained. People who are in safe remote areas now, who never travel, who don't meet anyone from out-of-state, and who are presently at low risk of infection, will gradually become more at risk as the virus spreads through the whole community.