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Old 03-22-2020, 06:13 PM
Andy L is offline
Join Date: Oct 2000
Posts: 7,525
Originally Posted by VOW View Post
I think you've got the basics.

However, your "tall bell curve" needs some numbers along the y-axis.

From what I can figure, the numbers of infected people are so great, they go beyond the old and decrepit. You'd have a mighty number of middle-aged and youth who will be very sick.

Medical care, which includes equipment, space, and trained personnel, is finite. As the number of infected rise, doctors and nurses will have to choose who gets unplugged, so the ventilator can be set up for a sicker patient. As more and more people present themselves for treatment, the selection process becomes almost arbitrary. People will offer to pay for ventilators. Fights will ensue.

The medical personnel will be dropping like flies. Fatigue and stress will make them vulnerable. Personal Protection Equipment is scarce NOW. Soon, a scary number of infected will be the very people we depend on to help us get well.

Flattening the bell curve will hopefully allow the number of respirators and hospital beds will be enough to accommodate most patients.

Look at Italy. They are attempting to share respirators between two patients, to stretch the resources. Yet each day seems to have a greater death toll. Cemeteries are full, coffins are unavailable. At night, under the cover of darkness, the military conducts a convoy of trucks loaded with dead bodies, to the crematoria.

Those dead aren't just "the old people."

And that just counts the people who actually have COVID-19. Imagine trying to get an appendectomy, or deliver a baby with complications, or be treated for critical injuries in a car accident or a fire when all the hospitals are overfull and medical staff are overwhelmed or sick