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Old 03-23-2020, 08:09 AM
naita is offline
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Norway
Posts: 6,989
Originally Posted by The Flying Dutchman View Post
As I understand it if we let the virus set the pace of new infections we get a tall but narrow bell curve representing the rate of new infections. The economy would be only slightly affected and we would achieve herd immunity pretty quick.
I think you've got it wrong with the "the economy would only be slightly affected". People can't seem to look beyond the still fluctuating mortality rate to the much larger rate of "requires intensive care over several weeks" and the even larger "would be too sick to go to work".

If you look to Italy and see that backlog of funerals that's building up, you would get something similar, with the direct and the psychological effect that would have. Yes, not having a lockdown would mean more people would be available to do the burying, but it would also mean more people dead faster.

And then there's the aftereffects of being so sick you need weeks in the ICU. Likely a large portion of those will have permanently reduced lung capacity.

This is not about avoiding deaths among the weak and elderly. Those have the highest mortality rates, but the rates for other groups are still significant. The rates of cases requiring intensive care for all groups are definitely significant.

And we can add the psychological effect on health care workers living through a period of refusing life saving treatment to suffering and dying patients.