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Old 03-23-2020, 03:56 PM
RickJay is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2000
Location: Oakville, Canada
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Originally Posted by The Flying Dutchman View Post
As I understand it if we let the virus set the pace of new infections we get a tall but narrow bell curve representing the rate of new infections. The economy would be only slightly affected and we would achieve herd immunity pretty quick. The downside of course is that mostly older people like me have a good chance of not having medical care available to them due to lack of available resources. That must be a hard thing for the rest of you to swallow.

Now I know the seasonal flu kills 10's of thousands of people each year without any economic interruption. Obviously our medical capacity is geared for it.
The seasonal flu doesn't really kill that many people. It's absolutely worth getting vaccinated for, but that number is of "flu related illnesses," which includes anyone who died when they had the flu (even if of another cause) and often ropes in deaths attributed to pneumonia even if there is no diagnosis of flu. Precisely what the enhanced mortality caused by flu is would take substantial analysis but "tens of thousands" is just not the case.

Were Coronavirus to actually send hundreds of thousands to the ICU all in one shot it'd be a disaster. There's no way around it. There are maybe 100,000 ICU beds in the entire USA, and of course they're mostly being used for other things; that is why they exist. The health care system absolutely cannot sustain a pandemic that requires tens of thousands of ICU hospitalizations. People would die in hallways.
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