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Old 03-24-2020, 11:36 AM
Brayne Ded is offline
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Join Date: Nov 2017
Location: Europe
Posts: 609

Herd immunity?


Bear in mind that the worst hit country in Europe (so far) is Italy, which not only has relatively fewer medical facilities per capita than, say, Germany, but was also the slowest to lock down. There were even people who defied the lockdown and when out for their evening drink as usual. The result was a rapid increase in cases and hey, the docs can get sick as well. As for the elderly, the lack of facilities means fewer respirators for those that need them. In short, if the pace of the new cases is slowed down, it does not overwhelm the hospitals, but the epidemic will most likely last longer as roughly the same number of people will get it eventually anyway.

The big question is how the virus will mutate, as they all do. The so-called Spanish 'flu of 1918 came in several waves and the second in particular was more deadly. The weird thing about this epidemic was that it hit worldwide and it killed many of the young and healthy, so it is not a case of being a result of the war and culling the weak and the elderly. We can only hope that it does not happen again, and bear in mind as well that many of the victims were left with impaired health afterwards. This could occur with the current virus, as it goes for the lungs.

Over here, the shops are open fewer hours, the number of people allowed in is restricted and they avoid getting close to one another, just about everywhere has closed down apart from food shops, and the town looks like a neutron bomb hit it. Those who can are working from hone, the others have been sent home and many are self-quarantining at home. I'll be doing that as well. So far, very few cases here in Poland, what with rapid and drastic action by the government.

Herd immunity is all and well, but the elderly tend to be left out of the herd.

As for a vaccine, it will be a long wait, at least a year. And despite claims to the contrary, there is nothing that actually stops you falling ill if you are infected.