View Single Post
Old 03-24-2020, 11:38 AM
FrenchDunadan is offline
Join Date: Jan 2020
Location: West of the Old World
Posts: 13
Coming back to the OP, in France we had 2 weeks ago 33 deads and 1800 sicks of covid19. Today this is 860 dead, 2 000 people are in great emergency ("urgence vitale") and 19 586 are sick., Today in an olderly home in Vosges 13 are dead, 16 in another one in Paris, and so on even if there is containement mesures in effect for one week. And we are still in the increasing side of the curve.
Students and retired doctors are called back to help in hospitals and in call centers. Peoples in jail are contaminated also.
So this is a disease that is VERY contagious, that can stay undetected for up to15 days and that KILLS. Estimations without any slowing mesures are of 60% of people sick (37 millions in France potentially) and of these 2% will die ( far far more for the 60+, up to 30% mortality rate for them). That's a poteltial of 740 000 deads in France.
What can we do to escape this? If you slow the spreading of the virus(by isolating mesures), you will have less people sick, and they will not be all at the same time. SO you can have respirators for all of the critical cases, you will not overwhem your health care system. You save lives.
Tha quasi philosophical problem is what cost you put on this lives? is an economic shutdown of 3-4 weeks a too high price to pay? Are the companies willing to lose some of their money to spare the lives of theirs employees?
Here in France, we have perhaps a more centralized governement, with more tradituon of dealing with catastrophes (world warS for instance) by putting the needs of the many on the top priority... and there is a strict police-enforced containement at home, with even curfews in many cities. Going out is possible, with an attestation stating adress, hour and destination. Taxes and rents for stores are canceled, lines of production are redesignated to produce hydroalcoholic gel, masks and so.
So we hope to flaten the curve enough to avoid the majority of the casualties, and the economic price will be paid later and don't really come as important.