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Old 03-24-2020, 03:27 PM
nelliebly is offline
Join Date: Jul 2017
Location: Washington
Posts: 3,042
Originally Posted by Ravenman View Post
Have you seen the projections that 50-75% of Americans will get the disease in an uncontrolled scenario?

I'm curious as to whether you don't believe that, or if you think that once a substantial majority of Americans already have it, then the government can take action.
I'm betting he'll say that most of those people will have mild cases or no symptoms. But "mild" here can and often does mean plenty of missed work. I only know one person with COVID-19: a healthy, fit 28-year-old who very rarely takes a sick day. He's been sick for over a week. Still, he'll say that's no worse than a bad flu season.

The economics he's not considering are:

•The "only" 20% of Americans who will get severe cases amounts to over 60,000,000 people.

• Some will be children because some kids have asthma (8%) or other risk factors, but they won't have as big an impact, though parents will have to take time off. And some are the elderly who aren't working.

• But 6,600,000 people over age 65 are in the workforce. They'll be absent. And they won't be buying much.

• Business owners over 65 will die, and many of their businesses will close.

• Diabetes, high BP, asthma, cancer, lupus, COPD--there are a host of conditions that make people of any age more likely to get a severe (or fatal) case of COVID-19, and one-third of Americans have them.

Health insurance rates will skyrocket for everyone. Medicare and Medicaid will blow well past their budgets.

I'd LOVE the restrictions to be lifted, but I wouldn't love losing people dear to me. Maybe Ultravires doesn't have anyone dear to him who's older or who has an underlying health condition. Or maybe it's just easier for some people to shrug off consequences when it's in the abstract.