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Old 03-26-2020, 03:41 PM
Irishman is offline
Join Date: Dec 1999
Location: Denton, TX, USA
Posts: 12,665
Originally Posted by The Flying Dutchman View Post
As I understand it if we let the virus set the pace of new infections we get a tall but narrow bell curve representing the rate of new infections. The economy would be only slightly affected and we would achieve herd immunity pretty quick. The downside of course is that mostly older people like me have a good chance of not having medical care available to them due to lack of available resources. That must be a hard thing for the rest of you to swallow.
There are problems with your assumptions. First is the apron that if we let things run there course quickly, the economy will only be slightly affected. You are basing this on the idea that most people would be working. This is absolutely unfounded. When people start dropping like flies, they will flood the hospitals, morgues, makeshift hospitals, veterinary clinics, tents in parking lots - you name it. Then all the medical personnel - doctors, nurses, nursing assistants, medical students - will all start coming down with it. This is because gowns and masks and face shields and gloves would be burned through in days. Next, all your first responders will be hit: EMTs, firefighters, police. Because they have to deal with the infected.

The ones who aren't in the ICU or hospital themselves would be in quarantine or self-isolation. So who would be carrying for all the sick and dying?

Then there's the problem that anyone needing any kind of medical care, be it emergency surgery, elective procedures, or cancer treatments or infections or any doctor visit, would be shit out of luck. Because all medical facilities and personnel will already be swamped.

What happens to the economy when everyone has several family members die in rapid succession?

And it's not just old people or those with underlying health conditionsthat are being severely hit. 40 percent of cases are between 18 and 40. Young people are ending up in the ICU in medically induced comas.

You think the stock market is going to be strong when CEOs and politicians start keeling over?

There's no easy to get out of this without the economy taking a huge hit. The question is are we going to blindly let people die because there are more than the system can handle, or are we going to try to spread the effects so as many as possible have a fighting chance?