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Old 03-26-2020, 05:09 PM
Magiver is offline
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Dayton Ohio USA
Posts: 29,283
Originally Posted by echoreply View Post
Traditional medical trials take longer than a year. A year is an extremely accelerated rollout. This is assuming the vaccine is safe and shows efficacy. 8 months from now they may be starting over. The very preliminary trials now may show a vaccine is safe enough after a few months, but it will take longer to show if it works at all. No point in gearing up to vaccinate the world with something that doesn't actually work, or has profound side effects. I know many groups are working on multiple different vaccines, so hopefully at least one of them will work out. Double hopefully one will work so well that trials can be halted early and it is put into immediate use.
"traditional" is something for a disease that kills thousands. There will be millions of dead from this so I would expect the time frame for vaccines and treatments to be accelerated.

And just looking at the numbers we are seeing the doubling of deaths in the US every 3 days. That would mean a total of close to 2 million by the end of April. That is why we're shutting everything down.