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Old 03-12-2020, 06:16 PM
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Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: "Hicksville", Ark.
Posts: 37,506
I am an Arkansan. I see no chance that the Democrats win here. Being a Dem is more accepted than the deep South, but Trump has pretty much bamboozled most of the state. I am also close to Missouri (probably 20-ish minutes), and have friends up there. I think there might be a slim chance up there, because Missouri has been more Democratic in the past.

But that's subjective experience. I think what is useful is looking at what FiveThirtyEight does, by looking at how states are correlated. Unfortunately, I'm not easily finding the ranks from last time, but maybe someone else could. It was basically just a list of states where, for your state to go blue, the states above it would likely also be blue. What I do remember is that Arkansas was pretty far down, with 9x% certainty that it would not flip.

If anyone could find that, it might be useful. I thought it was a great way of looking at this thing.