View Single Post
  #4  
Old 03-22-2020, 06:03 AM
RTFirefly is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Apr 1999
Location: Maryland
Posts: 41,323
Quote:
Originally Posted by DSeid View Post
Many have, when head to head polls against Trump were cited in support of candidate A or B, oft-repeated that general election head to head polls are not very useful too early on. True that.

But now we have a presumptive nominee and while the general is not right around the corner it starts to get close enough to make me wonder:

When DO general election head to head polls begin to have any predictive value? (Smart asses who want to say never can just not bother please.)
According to this oft-quoted cite, the head-to-heads start having predictive value about 300 days before the general election. IOW, about the second week in January. By now, per the graph, they've got an r2 of about .5, which is of course way less than certainty, but still pretty good.