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#8
03-29-2020, 02:06 PM
 Guest Join Date: Dec 2009 Location: the Land of Smiles Posts: 21,573
Here is a simplified look at the Electoral College. States are listed in order of D_vote minus R_vote from the 2016 election. The second percent shown is D+Green vote minus R+Libertarian vote.
various 205
-3.5% -6.3% AZ 11
------------------
-3.7% -6.1% NC 15
-1.2% -2.7% FL 29 *
-0.8% -3.3% WI 10 *
-0.7% -2.3% PA 20 *
-0.2% -2.8% MI 16 *
+0.4% -2.9% NH 4 *
+1.5% -1.1% MN 10
+3.0% -0.2% ME 2
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+2.4% -0.9% NV 6
various 210
By assigning AZ to the Rs and NV to the Ds, we obtain an interesting symmetry: each side has 216 "almost certain" evs with 106 (in 8 states) undecided. (Maine has 4evs total but is shown with only 2 evs because they've voluntarily given up electoral power by awarding 1 each to D and R more-or-less automatically.)

Only five states (FL, WI, PA, MI, NH) are at all likely to be tipping states — only these states matter! If Trump wins Florida, the Democrat must sweep the (swingable) Rust Belt. If Biden wins Florida (unlikely?) he only needs to also get PA or MI or both WI and NH.