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Old 11-08-2018, 11:54 AM
Thing Fish is offline
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Chicago (NL)
Posts: 3,385
Originally Posted by Chronos View Post
Successful gerrymandering means that your party wins a lot of seats by thin margins in each one, while losing a few seats by very large margins. This means that, if there's a larger shift to your opposition than you anticipated before you have a chance to draw new maps to compensate, your opponents can flip all of those thin-margin seats at once. By contrast, in a more natural districting, you'd have some seats where your party has a large margin, some where the margin is close one way or the other, and some where the other party has a large margin, and so when there's a shift, it's only the few close seats that switch.

So that's how the Democrats were able to take the House so strongly, this year.

As to why the Senate stayed Republican at the same time, it's mostly because of the six-year terms, as others have said.
Oh, gerrymandering definitely kept the Democratic wave from being bigger than it was. In North Carolina, for instance, 10 Republicans were elected to the House, all but one with less than 60% of the vote, as against only 3 Democrats, all of whom got at least 70% in their districts.