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Old 07-07-2010, 10:32 AM
Chessic Sense is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 6,750
Here's my count. These are loans that were issued and are at least a year old, so they've had time to go bad.


Good Late Bad Grand Total
Grade
A1 38 1 39
A2 115 1 3 119
A3 188 4 3 195
A4 230 4 3 237
A5 246 6 10 262
B1 146 7 12 165
B2 173 7 20 200
B3 182 8 18 208
B4 228 9 22 259
B5 251 5 31 287
C1 239 17 29 285
C2 205 9 29 243
C3 197 18 32 247
C4 221 7 30 258
C5 185 8 27 220
D1 156 8 27 191
D2 153 10 24 187
D3 135 10 28 173
D4 133 9 29 171
D5 96 11 18 125
E1 85 10 22 117
E2 102 11 23 136
E3 79 7 16 102
E4 65 7 23 95
E5 63 5 7 75
F1 43 2 14 59
F2 30 3 14 47
F3 23 2 12 37
F4 16 2 13 31
F5 14 3 9 26
G1 17 3 5 25
G2 9 5 7 21
G3 12 2 5 19
G4 21 2 10 33
G5 25 4 10 39
Grand Total 4121 226 586 4933

If you do (Late+Bad)/Total, you get Chessic Sense's True Default Rate:

A1 2.56%
A2 3.36%
A3 3.59%
A4 2.95%
A5 6.11%
B1 11.52%
B2 13.50%
B3 12.50%
B4 11.97%
B5 12.54%
C1 16.14%
C2 15.64%
C3 20.24%
C4 14.34%
C5 15.91%
D1 18.32%
D2 18.18%
D3 21.97%
D4 22.22%
D5 23.20%
E1 27.35%
E2 25.00%
E3 22.55%
E4 31.58%
E5 16.00%
F1 27.12%
F2 36.17%
F3 37.84%
F4 48.39%
F5 46.15%
G1 32.00%
G2 57.14%
G3 36.84%
G4 36.36%
G5 35.90%

If you break it out by purpose, using >6mo old loans, you get:

Purpose Bad Total % Bad
car 23 257 8.95%
CC Refi 95 1106 8.59%
consol 390 3337 11.69%
edu 50 304 16.45%
home Imp 67 560 11.96%
house 14 104 13.46%
purchase 29 358 8.10%
medical 21 149 14.09%
moving 13 112 11.61%
other 148 1098 13.48%
business 102 548 18.61%
vacation 2 45 4.44%
wedding 19 211 9.00%

I've bolded the ones of note here. Notice how high the small business loans and medical loans are vs. debt and vacations. Also notice the small sample size of the vacations and weddings compared to the CC Refi and the Debt Consols.

Last edited by Chessic Sense; 07-07-2010 at 10:35 AM.