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Old 09-01-2019, 09:02 PM
UDS is offline
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Australia
Posts: 9,020
Originally Posted by PatrickLondon View Post
On present form, that's not so clear. They might suck up Labour votes in leave-voting Labour constituencies more than Tory votes in Tory constituencies. They might have a spoiler effect on the distribution of seats as between the established parties without actually winning any themselves.
Which would be a disaster for the Tories.

In the 2015 general election UKIP secured 12.5% of the vote. Under the crapulous British electoral system that got them precisely one seat out of 650, instead of the 80 or so that they might have expected in a democracy. But there were 50 seats in which the Tories lost by fewer votes than UKIP secured.

If we assume that the Brexit party largely competes with the Tories for votes, then the stronger the Brexit party performance, the more seats the Tories lose. And they can't afford to lose any seats; at present Johnson's nominal majority is 1 seat.

Currently the Brexit party is polling in the 10%-15% range. If that is replicated in a general election, it's hard to see how the Tories can win.