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Old 02-21-2005, 11:43 PM
threemae threemae is offline
Join Date: Jun 1999
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Posts: 3,760
I think you're confusing the actual meaining of "regression to the mean". All it says is that things who tend to be statistical outliers now are less likely to be statistical outliers later, but it's not like some force of nature like the 2nd Law of Thermodynamics.

Basically, look at perhaps Nobel Prize winners. Let's say we give people a measure of "five year achievement scores." Nobel Prize winners are statistical outliers in terms of this measure, but when we measure them again in five years, they're unlikely to have won another Nobel Prize. It doesn't really realate to the distribution as a whole.
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