Thread: Joe Biden's in
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Old 08-31-2019, 01:55 PM
septimus's Avatar
septimus is offline
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 20,860
Others aren't focusing on the important reason why Joe Biden's age is a problem.

According to the SocSec Actuarial tables, a man of Biden's age has a 5.1% chance of dying between now and Election Day. The comparable chance for a woman of Warren's age is only 1.8%. 5% is a big deal in a high-stakes game.

Now, both Biden and Warren are probably much healthier than the average person their age, so those numbers are high; I show them just as a base-line for consideration. However death is NOT the big problem. A simple death might allow Democrats to rally around a second choice. What I'm worried about are accident, illness, fatigue, or loss of mental acuity. These are all problems much more likely to affect a 77-year old than a younger person. (I don't have actuarial tables showing the chances of such a problem, but since death is 5% I'd guess the risk is much greater than that.)

If Biden could be trusted to withdraw promptly and thoroughly in the event of an accident, illness, fatigue or loss of mental acuity, then perhaps the risk would be worth running. But many illnesses or accidents are "minor." Withdraw or don't withdraw? Any uncertainty or indecision would focus the campaign in a bad way for Democrats. (Recall that Hilary's quite minor illness became a big talking point in 2016.) If the withdrawal, whether voluntary or forced, comes at the end of the primary season, Democrats might be thrown into consternation. Who gets the job? (The person in 2nd-place by delegate count might not be the proper choice: the campaign would have played out differently without Biden.)

And even the mildest of problems is likely to be exaggerated by the media, particularly in this Fake News era. He continues to make gaffes? Political opponents will blame it on dementia. He's late for a press conference? Trump will make sarcastic comments about Joe's cardiologist.

The risk that some event accident, illness or even just gaffes will make Biden's age a central issue in the campaign is just too great. No, the fact that Trump is also old though almost 4 years younger than Biden is NOT the counterargument: Trump could have a heart attack on Fifth Avenue and wouldn't lose support.

I'm surprised this isn't as clear to others as it is to me. The risk of running a man that old is just too great. Elizabeth Warren for President!