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Old 04-27-2018, 06:36 AM
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So the two Koreas have met:

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...ce-kim-jong-un

What occurred to me as I was reading about their summit and reading about all of the warm fuzzies that the summit might be creating is that it creates a potential problem for the United States.

If the two Koreas appear to be working toward some sort of peace agreement, then that puts the United States in the position of having to support that agreement, irrespective of whether or not it addresses the concerns of the US and Japan. If voters in South Korea view the summit positively, that puts the US and Trump in the position of potentially fucking it all up if the Kim-Trump summit somehow breaks down, which would potentially drive a wedge between the US and South Korea.

If, let's say, Kim Jong Un pledges to President Moon that he will suspend further development of his nuclear program and missile testing and maybe even scrap some of his biological arsenal or offer other minor concessions, then that could be viewed as "progress," particularly if Moon, independent of US and Japan's concerns, views this as a stepping stone toward the end of sanctions against Kim's regime.

Kim may also be angling for an even more powerful play here, which is a direct connection to the South Korean people. Through Moon, he may have opened up a more direct channel of communication to persuade South Koreans that he just wants to be left alone and that the two Koreans can manage their own affairs without other world powers like the US involved. Even among South Koreans, there is a long-standing sentiment that countries have exploited Koreans for their own benefit. Korea has a history of being invaded, occupied, and exploited by larger, more powerful outside powers and Kim knows that he can use that sentiment to his advantage in dealing with the US and Japan.