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Old 07-16-2019, 10:16 AM
Helmut Doork is offline
Join Date: Dec 2018
Posts: 599
Originally Posted by Dead Cat View Post
I agree with you on Novak/Rafa/Andy being more prone to injury (indeed all have already shown this is the case, and it's likely to get worse for them as time goes on). Which is why I was amazed to read in this morning's Metro that the odds on Federer finishing his career with more grand slams than Rafa and Novak (by the time their careers are over) are apparently 8/1. With Novak and Rafa at something like 2/1 and 6/4 respectively. 8/1 looks incredible value to me - I mean yes, the other two are great, but they are not invincible and their careers could end/fall away literally any time from now. Nadal won't be favourite to win any Slam except the French now, his best hope is to wrap that up for 2 more years (by no means guaranteed) and sneak another one in somewhere else while hoping Roger doesn't manage that also. Novak is clearly looking the strongest of the three at the moment but needs 5 to overhaul Roger's current total, that's a lot. I suspect the 'catch' is that all bets are retained in the event of a tie.
Agree 100% on your assessment of Nadal. If Novak plays until Rogers' current 38, that's @24 more slams, and currently needs five to tie Roger, who more than likely is going to get at least a couple more at this rate, so I think it comes down to Novak or Roger. And if in two years say Nadal and Roger are both done, and Novak is still at his peak, and the competition remains as weak as it is now, I could see him overtaking Roger, but it would be close.

Last edited by Helmut Doork; 07-16-2019 at 10:17 AM.