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Old 01-20-2020, 09:53 AM
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asahi is offline
Join Date: Aug 2015
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Posts: 12,400
I will likely update this, as there is almost certainly going to be enough movement in the polls to make a difference. But in case I forget to post a prediction, here goes my Iowa prediction:

Biden 20%
Sanders 19%
Buttigieg 18%
Warren 17%

Any 'movement' will probably be only a percent or two but because these candidates are so close together and could all conceivably win delegates, any poll movement will be significant. My gut feeling is that Sanders and Warren's spat will lead to some shifting between the two of them, which might benefit both Buttigieg and Biden.

As for New Hampshire, I think Bernie will prevail again in a state where he thumped Clinton a few years ago. It'll be closer though:

Sanders 19.5%
Biden 19%
Warren 17%
Buttigieg 13%

I also think New Hampshire will probably be the beginning of the end for Buttigieg. Warren will be badly wounded too if she can't place any higher than 3rd in the first two races.

Last edited by asahi; 01-20-2020 at 09:53 AM.