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Old 05-06-2019, 08:27 AM
Gus Gusterson is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: US
Posts: 1,551
Quote:
Originally Posted by SenorBeef View Post
People are vastly overstating the degree to which is strategy is integral to his continued winning. Yes, he's worked out a way to increase his win expectation (at the cost of his variance - his strategy is easier to sink from one fluke) but 95% of what makes him dominate is simply because he's really good on the buzzer and knows the answer to almost all the questions. His strategy is what gets him the big dollar amounts at the end of the day, but he would almost certainly be on just as big a winning streak if he played more conventionally, just with less total money won.
One more factor is that he understands how to bet and isn't afraid to make a big bet when it's the right thing to do. Most other players treat their score as money but it's not money. It's points. The prize is that you get a dollar per point if you win. Thinking "I have $10,000. If I bet big on this Daily Double and miss it I will lose $10,000" is simply wrong. If you're behind the only way to catch up is to bet it all. If you miss the question you will lose, but if you get the question and don't bet enough you will lose anyway.

The only guy who has had a chance yet bet $12,000 on a DD when he had $13,000 so that he could make sure that he got to FJ even if he missed the question. Stupid. If he'd missed the question he was guaranteed to lose, but an extra $1,000 could have put him in a better position to win.

James's Coryat scores (which take away the effect of the Daily Doubles) are much higher than those of the other players, which shows that he would win even if the Daily Doubles didn't exist. The only way to beat him will be to find the Daily Doubles before he does and bet big when you find them.