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Old 11-22-2014, 02:36 PM
brickbacon is offline
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Washington, DC
Posts: 4,895
Originally Posted by mr. jp View Post
I will go through them 1 by 1 and evaluate how unlikely I think it is, in a scenario where Adnan is completely innocent.

"lend their car and brand new phone to a casual acquaintance"

Unlikeliness : 2/10

I think that happened all the time in this environment. If you have some arguments that this was not the case I could take it up again. Casual acquaintance seems to also understate things, given that we at least knew they hung out somewhat regularly.

"admittedly involved in a murder of someone that acquaintance barely knows but that you do know well?"

Unlikeliness: 9/10

"How many write, "I'm going to kill" on a letter from an ex"

Unlikeliness: 2

I think if you go through every single note from any innocent teenager, you are going to find something that is at least this discriminating.

"who was subsequently murdered that accuses you of being possessive and substantiates a clear motive for murder?"

Unlikeliness: N/A

I disagree with this. I think that her accusations were extremely mild, and I don't think there was a motive for murder, and it was definitely not substantiated.

"Yes, the map could be innocuous (although who keeps a map in their trunk), but it's likely not given other circumstantial evidence."

Unlikeliness: 1

Innocuous things that suddenly become damning just because there is other circumstantial evidence against someone. Then everyone would be guilty once you start accusing them, due to roll-on effect of a multitude of small random things.
Multiple all those probabilities together and tell me how likely it is all of them happen?