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Old 01-17-2020, 11:04 PM
str8cashhomie is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2017
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cmosdes View Post
Good point that the blue wave would have swept out many of the Republicans in moderate districts, but I still feel like terms "all that many" and "almost none" would lead to at least *1* Republican voting for impeachment. But your explanation makes sense.

Kent ClarkYou are right, but it just doesn't quite fully make sense to me. If voting against impeachment in a moderate district means they would lose the general election for sure, the smart move would be vote for impeachment and take your chances in the primary and hope that enough moderate Republicans in the district could see the facts. In every.single.case, the republican representative thought their chances of losing the primary were higher than losing the election if they voted to impeach.

I agree with what you and Fretful Porpentine are saying, but I'd feel better if there were 1 or 2 or a few republicans who voted to impeach.
First of all, the only reason there is not 1 Republican voting for impeachment is that Justin Amash, who was elected on the GOP ticket, had already left the party after coming out in favor of impeachment over the Mueller report.

Generally, I think there are a few reasons it's still such a small number:

I think the biggest reason is that even if there is a bloc of moderate votes who would lean Republican but don't want someone who will side with Trump over his corruption is probably already blaming the GOP for enabling Trump. I think Republicans in congress think that they won't get enough credit if they side against Trump now and will end up without the die-hards or enough of the moderates. I'm sure supporting impeachment will get some of the anti-Trump moderates but I sizeable portion are going to turn Democrats at least in the short-term.

I think the herd mentality, and the makeup of the GOP after 2008 also matters. If there was already a group of Republicans defecting, you would probably somewhat of a contagious effect, but as it stands if you are one of the only GOP congressmen to support impeachment you are going to have a huge target on your back and it is an absolute guarantee that you will face as much pressure from the party as they can put on you. Another factor is the fact that GOP congressmen who would rather bet on surviving a primary challenge to appeal to a wider group of voters in the general were exactly the people the tea party targeted, so congress is now made up of people who themselves got there by challenging moderates in the primaries and some who had to adapt to survive the tea party.

Last edited by str8cashhomie; 01-17-2020 at 11:07 PM.