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Old 09-15-2019, 01:33 PM
Buck Godot's Avatar
Buck Godot is offline
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: MD outside DC
Posts: 6,140
Originally Posted by begbert2 View Post
According to the cite, the yield curve has actually predicted 7 of 7 recessions, with 100% accuracy, over the past 50 years.

It appears that the delay from inversion to recession ranges from half a year to a year and a half, based on the admittedly small data set presented.
I wouldn't put much faith in a study set that small. p. The actual accuracy could be 75% and would still have 13% likelihood of appearing 100% accurate over 7 trials. even more so if you account for cherry picking of economic indeators and the inclusion of a delay that gives them a large amount of wiggle room. Recall the obviously coincidental Redskin Rule which had 100% accuracy until it didn't

Last edited by Buck Godot; 09-15-2019 at 01:38 PM.