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Old 10-16-2019, 10:06 AM
Dead Cat is online now
I was curious...
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: UK
Posts: 4,353
Originally Posted by glee View Post
I don't gamble myself, but I trust the bookies to give a fair prediction (since their money is at stake!)

Here are some odds for the quarter-finals:

- England 7/19 on; Australia 11/4

- NZ 2/9 on; Ireland 94/19

- Wales 3/7 on; France 11/4

- SA 2/1 on; Japan 13/2
Remember the bookies only set the odds initially - after that, the odds will move depending on how much money has backed each side. Which can make the latest odds a better predictor, given the 'weight of money' is behind them. They effectively represent an average of all the opinions among those who have placed a wager.

Translating these to percentages (trying to take into account the bookies' margin/overge/vig):

ENG 73% AUS 27%
NZ 82% IRE 18%
WAL 72% FRA 28%
SA 77% JAP 23%

Incidentally the margin on the last game seems to be much larger than any of the others - my guess is because less money has been wagered on it than the other 3, but Japan do look good value to me at those odds.

Originally Posted by merrick View Post
There's a lot of (rather studied and theatrical) tribalism about rugby, and it's hard to know what's real and what's being put on for effect. I'd suspect that most England fans would be cheering for Wales or Ireland in a final against South Africa or New Zealand, but I wouldn't expect all of them to admit it in public.
I doubt I am a typical fan, but as I posted earlier, my 'problem' with Wales or Ireland winning is the bragging rights. I know a lot more Welsh and Irish people than South Africans or New Zealanders. To be honest I wouldn't much care either way who won, but I think ideally I'd prefer SA or NZ in that scenario. I mean, everyone knows NZ are the best, so winning the World Cup is par for the course.

Originally Posted by Novelty Bobble View Post
I don't get how you can "hate" a team as a general principle. I've certainly got preferences and on a case-by-case basis I may dislike a team from a specific point in time but I'm not a fan of allowing that to linger. I never liked Maradona but it was nothing to do with his nationality, Ardiles and Ricky Villa were much loved in the UK.

I've heard people from Scotland express proper hatred for English teams on a blanket basis and that never makes any sense to me, seems childish and bigoted in the extreme and rather ugly. I'd be perfectly happy for any of the home nations to be successful on the world stage and I find it a little dissappointing that more don't feel the same.
In general I do agree, for example I'm happy to see Scottish teams do well apart from against England. And I agree the hatred of Maradona has nothing to do with his nationality, more that he is a cheating, drug-addled scumbag. But the fact remains he represents Argentina's victory over England in that World Cup, so the team and country is 'guilty' by association. Then there is the Falklands. I don't particularly care whether those islands remain part of the UK or not, but evidently those who live there do, and Argentina were the aggressors - no doubt hoping for some oil exploration rights to prop up their failed economy. I feel sorry for the Argentinians who have been stuck with a succession of failed governments.

Originally Posted by racepug View Post
Being from the U.S. I've never had anything against the Scots and in fact I'd love to visit Scotland but I've never been impressed with their national soccer team. Perhaps if I'd been born a few years earlier I would have been but since the time I first started following international soccer (the 1982 W.C.) the Scottish team, in my opinion, simply hasn't been very good. (I haven't been following rugby long enough to have formed an opinion about their national rugby team)
Yes, the Scottish football team peaked in about 1978 and has been going gradually downhill ever since. The rugby team have followed a not dissimilar trajectory in that time but in the last few years have seemed poised for a comeback to the big time. Unfortunately, they haven't quite made it yet.

Originally Posted by lisiate View Post
I don't bet on sport as a rule, but if I did I'd be seriously looking at the right hand side teams at those odds (assuming I'm reading them correctly, as I'm not used to fractional odds). I think all the games are closer than those odds imply. I guess the bookies are out to balance their books?
As above, it depends entirely on how much money is backing each team. I tend to agree with you that the odds for the underdogs generally look better value than the favourites. On the other hand, that's what the bookies want you to think - the more balanced their book, the less risk to them.

Originally Posted by racepug View Post
Okay, but how do you feel about ENG vs. AUS and WAL vs. FRA (strictly out of curiosity)?
I'd put Eng/Aus as close to 50/50. England do have an edge but they could choke in a big game. If I were to bet on it, it would be a modest amount on Australia to hedge against my disappointment.

Wal/Fra is also tough to call with the Wales injuries, but I'd guess at 60% Wales, 40% France.