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Old 12-28-2019, 02:06 AM
dtilque is offline
Charter Member
Join Date: Jan 2000
Location: My own private Nogero
Posts: 7,544
I've been thinking a lot about a similar SF scenario and have some thoughts. And yes, I know some of these are fighting the hypothetical.

First, how do you know that your treatment will extend life by that much? You've done tests on lab animals, but those are never certain to work the same in humans. Assuming you've given it to humans, the best you can say is that it seems to prevent aging in humans and you guess it may extend life that much.

So you release it anyway and people set up clinics to administer it. Despite your claim that its cost is not outrageous, those clinics are going to charge outrageous fees anyway. You can't stop them. Take a look at all the drugs nowadays that don't cost that much to produce, but have outrageous prices. And that's for medicines that may only extend lives by a few years.

And then of course there's the requirement for this treatment ot get approval from various agencies, i.e. the FDA and equivalents in other countries. I suspect it will be difficult, if not impossible, to get it. I don't think the FDA even has protocols for testing such treatments. So these clinics will likely be set up in countries that don't have such difficult bureaucratic hinderance. That's going to be a real drag to their reputations. And of course, some clinics will be faudulent, which will further degrade their reps.

So the combination of high prices, poor rep, and remote location of clinics will mean that relatively few people will actually get the treatment.

BTW, this scenario reminds me of a real life thing going on right now. Someone came up with a treatment that will extend the telomeres in DNA. It seems to reverse signs of aging in mice but has not been tested in humans. They're setting up a test on humans in Colombia (thus avoiding the FDA) and charging the subjects of the test $1 million to participate. link