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Old 10-07-2019, 09:10 AM
Xema is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2002
Posts: 12,291
Quote:
Originally Posted by Novelty Bobble View Post
Is there a stats breakdown for the layperson that shows the maths behind the assertion of cheating?
The best quick insight is provided by the graph that Gray Ghost linked. If accurate, this more or less conclusively proves that Postle is cheating.

The vertical axis shows the percentage of hands a player elects to bet with. At more than 60%, Postle is way above average, which necessarily means he's often playing with mediocre cards. This should produce lots of losses and a high variance in his results. But the horizontal axis (which shows the rate at which he wins money per 100 hands played) indicates that he enjoys spectacular success, with scarcely a setback. To score 150 on this scale would rank you as possibly the greatest poker player ever (or perhaps someone who plays only with really bad players); Postle is at 1000, which is simply not possible in fair games over any longish time.

For context, check out the dot labeled "potripper". This shows the result achieved online in 2007 by a cheater in what is known as the Absolute Poker scandal. It was shown that potripper had real-time access to his opponents' cards - but note that his (absurdly high) win rate is only about half of Postle's.