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Old 02-01-2020, 10:06 AM
DinoR is offline
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 4,009
Originally Posted by RTFirefly View Post
The point of January fundraising was to have money to contest Iowa and NH.
Any campaign that thinks it has a chance better have been doing MUCH more than simply contesting IA and NH during Jan. The schedule is different in critical ways then the old rules of thumb capture. It is front loaded in a way it wasn't when those rules of thumb entered the public consciousness. The move towards early voting and easier absentee voting effectively front loads the schedule further. That move is especially strong in states that Democrats dominate where DNC rules award extra delegates.

Some other dates to compare to that schedule. I will run through one week after the NH primary when we could reasonably expect money from a strong NH showing to start to be available for significant spending. Dates extracted from the wikipedia entry for the 2020 Dem primary page.

January 17: No-excuse, in-person absentee voting in the Minnesota primary began.
January 18: No-excuse, in-person absentee voting in the Vermont primary, and in-person absentee voting in the Virginia primary began.
January 20: Early voting began in the North Dakota firehouse caucuses.
January 24: No-excuse, in-person absentee voting in the Idaho primary began.
January 25: No-excuse, in-person absentee voting in the Michigan primary began.

February 2: No-excuse, in-person absentee voting in the Maine primary begins.[386]
February 3:
Iowa caucuses
Early voting in the California primary begins.
February 11: New Hampshire primary
February 12: Early voting in the Tennessee primary begins.
February 13: Early voting in the North Carolina primary begins.
February 15: Early voting in the Nevada caucuses begins.
February 17: Early voting in the Arkansas primary begins.
February 18:
Early voting in the Texas and Utah primaries begins.
Early voting in the Nevada caucuses ends.
6 states are already voting. 7 will be voting by the time of the Iowa caucus. California, with its giant haul of delegates, mails its absentee ballots the same day as Iowa. That means 8 states voting before the NH primary. 15 states that aren't either Iowa or New Hampshire will be voting before a post NH fundraising bump can reasonably start to have any significant effect. This primary is simply not the same as primaries where the old rules of thumb worked.

The numbers may not matter as a story by the time they are released. They are huge for not getting crushed in the votes that won't be reported until early March.