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Old 03-20-2020, 02:49 PM
The wind of my soul is offline
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Washington, D.C.
Posts: 2,094
Originally Posted by Saturn Dreams View Post
Flattening the curve is only meant to deal with slowing the rate of infection so that the health care system is not overburdened with a sudden, simultaneous onslaught of cases as is happening now. It has less to do with decreasing the number of infected and more with ensuring necessary resources for healthcare. The thinking is the more people being properly managed under professional care the less damage and fatality there will be. A tragic example as to the consequences of not flattening the curve is to see what’s currently occurring in Italy.
Originally Posted by DesertDog View Post
^This.^ Squinting at the two curves on the chart and applying thumbnail calculus to it, the area under the two curves looks the same. That means the total number of infections will wind up the same no matter what we do, but keeping the peak under that dotted line means fewer will die, a win in my book.
Okay wait. Maybe it's just a Friday afternoon and I need caffeine, but ... slowing the infection rate would reduce the total number of people infected. Right? If 2 people each infect 2 people who each infect 2 people, then you're up to 14 cases, if I'm doing my math right. If 1 person infects 1 person who infects 1 person, then you're up to 3 cases. Even if they lifted the quarantine and the rate of infection went up, you're still going to have a way lower total number of people infected if you reduce the infection rate.

ETA: I guess it depends on whether we get the infection rate threshold to less than 1.0 or not.

Last edited by The wind of my soul; 03-20-2020 at 02:54 PM.