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Old 03-26-2020, 11:29 PM
Stranger On A Train is offline
Join Date: May 2003
Location: Manor Farm
Posts: 19,882
Without a representative sample across the population there really isnít anyway to know to any degree of statistical certainty.

FWIW, I made a model of distribution a couple of weeks ago when cases started showing up in Canada, California, and New York based on the publicly available data from Johns Hopkins, and from the data at the time I found the R0 value to be at least 4 and maybe higher than 6, and the distribution not explainable without asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic carriers. I have a strong if anecdotal suspicion that there are a vast number of asymptomatic carriers and many others who attributed symptoms to mild cold, allergies, or fatigue.

We wonít know the real numbers or even have a good estimate until an antibody test (showing who has had the infection and developed immune response) is made widely available and data is compiled.